Fantasy football draft season has arrived, and at TotalApexSports, we want you to be prepared with the perfect draft strategy! Experienced fantasy football managers have heard of draft strategies such as zero RB, hero RB, zero WR, elite quarterback, and late quarterback draft strategies. These strategies are clearly league dependent. For the sake of this analysis, we will be discussing a standard 10-team league with two wide receivers and running back slots.
Are these strategies just buzzwords to lure fantasy managers in, or is there data that indicates some are worth a try? Each strategy has its pros and cons, and we will be breaking them all down for you, starting with the Zero RB strategy.
What is the Zero RB Draft Strategy?
This draft strategy suggests that taking running backs in later rounds gives a higher return on investment. Specifically, avoiding running backs in rounds one through three, and even through round five.
The idea is to stock up on other skill positions like a wide receiver because the running back position is so volatile, and the risk of injury is higher. You can typically find league-winning running backs late in drafts or off the waiver wire. What does the data suggest?
Zero RB Draft Strategy Analysis
Waiting to draft a running back in round three or later from 2019-2023 paid dividends, according to ESPN. Running backs selected after the first two rounds finished in the top 10 50% of the time. Conversely, receivers selected in the first two rounds finished in the top 10 56% of the time.
In the early rounds, wide receivers provide significantly higher returns than running backs. Of the top 20 finishers at the running back position, 10% were found off the waiver wire or after pick 150 in the draft. Conversely, only 5% of receivers who were taken outside the top 100 or obtained off the waiver finished the season as a top 20 player at their position.
The data shows that it is advantageous to minimize risk with wide receivers in the early rounds and maximize the rewards by selecting running backs in later rounds.
Here are some great late-round and waiver-wire running backs over the past couple of years: Kyren Williams RB#7 (undrafted, 2023), Raheem Mostert RB#5 (Drafted RB#45, 2023), and Tony Pollard RB#8 (Drafted RB#30, 2022).
Final Thoughts
Clearly, this data should not be interpreted in a vacuum. There is plenty of luck involved when striking gold on a late round / waiver wire running back. When assessing late round backs for this draft strategy, find backfields who do not have a clear cut starter yet. Guys like Tyjae Spears, Jaylen Warren, and Javonte Williams may be good options for 2024.
Do not waste waiver wire additions on wide receivers. Wait until a starting running back goes down, and pounce. The Zero RB draft strategy certainly bears fruits, but you must be extremely active on the waiver wire and strike gold late in the draft. Do not aimlessly go into this draft strategy. Make a plan, and execute.
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