Corbin Burnes has been traded to the Baltimore Orioles. After months of speculation on what the Milwaukee Brewers would do with their star pitcher, they finally decided to move him. Burnes now joins one of the best young teams in baseball. What does this mean for Corbin Burnes in fantasy baseball?
Corbin Burnes 2023 Fantasy Season
Corbin Burnes went 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 193 2/3 innings for Milwaukee in 2023. It wasn’t his best season, but he was still an above-average starter in fantasy baseball. The issue Burnes had was a bottom half of the league offense behind him. Milwaukee only had 4.47 runs per game, 17th in the major leagues.
A midseason injury hampered his numbers, but he was still one of the top pitchers in fantasy baseball last season. His 2023 season was also the fourth straight season he finished in the top ten of the Cy Young voting. He has slowly become one of the most reliable pitchers in fantasy baseball in the past half-decade.
Corbin Burnes 2024 Outlook
Corbin Burnes would have been one of the first five pitchers off the board. Now, he is likely one of the first three pitchers taken. As I mentioned previously, the run support hindered Burnes’ numbers. He now joins a top-ten offense that averaged nearly five runs a game in 2023. On top of that, he will now play at a pitcher-friendly park. Statcast estimates he would have allowed seven fewer home runs in 2023 had he been pitching at Camden Yards.
He immediately becomes the ace for the Baltimore Orioles. I would expect Corbin Burnes to be the opening-day starter for the team, meaning if he stays healthy, he will get plenty of starts. With a low WHIP and good strikeout numbers, Burnes should have plenty of fantasy point opportunities in 2024.
Milwaukee Brewers Outlook
The Brewers become very interesting from a fantasy baseball perspective. Infielder Joey Ortiz didn’t do much during his limited time in the majors but hit .321 with a .885 OPS at Triple-A. The data reveals some intriguing possibilities, and he can’t be worse than Brice Turang or Andruw Monasterio.
Freddy Peralta becomes the clear number-one starter for their pitching rotation after Corbin Burnes left. After that, it is pretty bleak. DL Hall came over in the trade, but whether he is a starter or a closer is unclear. Aaron Ashby missed all of 2023 but showed some promise in 2022. Robert Gasser came over in the Josh Hader trade and has shown good strikeout numbers in the minors. From a fantasy perspective, I would avoid all Brewers pitchers outside of Peralta for now.
Great For Corbin Burnes
This is a great move if you already have Corbin Burnes or end up drafting him. I expect his numbers to be better in 2024 because of the upgrade in the team. With Jackson Holiday expected to make his major league debut this season, the Orioles offense could take another leap forward. Regarding fantasy baseball, everyone’s value goes up on the Orioles.
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Matt has been following sports since he was a kid. While football is his primary focus, Matt can talk about any sport anytime. He is a banker in Wisconsin and hosts two podcasts, Beers and Ears & Discontinued on Display.
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