DFS NFL week 1 is upon us. Each week we spotlight three to four core plays to help you build a winning weekly DFS lineup on Fanduel and DraftKings. In building a successful lineup, look for positional values to see where you can save money and players with projected low ownership who can pay 2x-2.5x of their listed salary.
You bank on getting a minimum of 20 points from the quarterback position, you can not miss this position. Expect to pay up at the tight end, you can save at other spots. A successful strategy can be the QB-TE stack. These core plays will give you a nucleus for your DFS build. Perhaps most importantly, you don’t need me to tell you to start CeDee Lamb and Bijan Robinson. These plays are designed to give you a unique build.
DFS Start ‘Ems
Josh Allen (DraftKings $8000k/$9200k Fanduel)
Josh Allen is the top quarterbacks play on both DraftKings and Fanduel. You have to hit on the QB to have a chance this week. We need 20 points minimum from the position. Allen’s Bills come in with an implied team total of 27.5 and a game total of 48. Allen gives us tremendous upside with both his rushing ability. Last season he led the position with 44 total touchdowns and was QB1. He is playing at home and with the third-highest game-implied total. We also have a possible shoot-out with an improved Cardinals offense under a healthy Kyler Murray.
Khalil Shakir (DraftKings $5100/$5400 Fanduel)
We can save some money here by using Khail Shakir in our wide receiver spot. Shakir’s snap rate increased significantly after week 7 last season. He played nine games where he saw at least a 50% snap rate. He posted a 2.18 yards per route run. Shakir will be used in the slot some, with Coleman and Valdez Scantling/Mack Hollins out wide.
Last year, Arizona gave up the ninth PPR points to slot wide receivers and was rated by PFF as the 32nd-ranked secondary. Shakir has a pathway where he, not Keon Coleman, will become Buffalo’s WR1. Shakir’s cost is low and will only need 10.8 points to pay 2x off his DFS salary.
Najee Harris (DraftKings $5600k/$6700k Fanduel)
Under new Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith, the Steelers will feature the run game. Harris should garner the majority of touches in the Pittsburgh backfield. Last season, Harris was top 20 in explosive run rate, missed tackles forced, and yards after contact.
This matches up with a Falcons defense that allowed the 13th most rushing yards per game last season. Jaylen Warren, coming off a hamstring injury, may not be at 100%, leading to more volume for Harris. Volume is king for any DFS running back play in fantasy and Harris’ modest salary allows you to spend up at your second running back spot.
DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side of things, here are a few of the players we are sitting in this one.
Brian Robinson Jr. RB (DraftKings $5200k/ $5900k Fanduel)
Difficult week 1 matchup to start the season against the Tampa Bay defense that was top five in rushing yards allowed per game and missed tackles allowed. In addition, the Buccaneers were top seven yards after contact allowed. Robinson is a DFS sit week one.
Gardner Minshew QB (DraftKings $5300k/ $6800k Fanduel)
Hopefully, you are not in a position to use Gardner Minshew in week one outside of Superflex leagues. He was QB21 last season as the Colts starting quarterback. He was near the league bottom in yards per attempt, catchable ball rate, and points per dropback. I expect the Chargers to be much improved defensively under Harbaugh and the Raiders will want to be run-based.
Brandon Cooks WR (DraftKings $5400k/$5300k Fanduel)
Cooks was WR43 last season and in week one gets a difficult matchup with the Browns. Last season, Cooks was 45th in receiving yards per game and 61st in target share. He will be matched up with the majority versus Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr.
Total Apex Stud of the Week
Khalil Shakir (DraftKings $5100k/$5400k Fanduel)
As stated earlier, Shakir has a pathway where he can become Buffalo’s WR1. Shakir’s cost is low that will not take a lot to pay off his DFS salary. My rationale is that Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, and James Cook ownership, will keep the DFS masses off Shakir.
Total Apex Dud of the Week
Kirk Cousins QB (DraftKings $6100k/ Fanduel $7500k)
Kirk Cousins is coming off an Achilles tendon injury and faces one of the best defensive units in the NFL. The Steelers boast arguably the best defensive player in the league in T.J. Watt and pair him with another double sack artist in Alex HighSmith. The Steelers were top 6 in DVOA against the pass last season. In 2023, Pittsburgh was top 6 in blitz rate and top 11 in pressure rate. Cousins is a minimal threat to run, so the Steeler pass rush will not worry about him getting outside the pocket. Temper expectations on Cousins this week and a game total set at 42.
Stack of the Day
Favorable game stacks Josh Allen-Khalil Shakir/Dalton Kincaid, Will Levis-Calvin Ridley, Jayden Daniels-Terry McLaurin, Baker Mayfield-Mike Evans/Chris Godwin, and Matt Stafford-Cooper Kupp
Additional DFS starts are Jonathan Taylor, Rashid White, Malik Nabors, Kyle Pitts, and Evan Ingram.
Conclusion
Each week in DFS your payline for FanDuel is approximately 125 points, which is 2x per player. For example, a player with a $4500 salary needs nine points. DraftKings pay line is approximately 134 points, which is 2.5x per player. So for a $4500 salary that player would need 9.9 points. We also want a DFS lineup unique to the masses. You want players that are projected for low ownership.
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