Both teams enter Week 10 with identical 6–3 records, but the vibes couldn’t be more different for the Bills and Bucs. Tampa Bay has dropped two of its last three, struggling to find an offensive rhythm and leaning too heavily on its defense. Meanwhile, Buffalo is fighting off the Patriots in the AFC East and needs every win it can get to stay in the race.
This matchup has major playoff implications and provides plenty of fantasy value across the board.
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QUICK START METER (0 = SIT, 10 = MUST-START)
| Player | Team | Meter | Outlook |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 10/10 | Elite QB1 with rushing floor |
| James Cook | BUF | 9/10 | Perfect matchup vs struggling Bucs front |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | 7.5/10 | WR1 usage + injury-hit Bucs secondary |
| Keon Coleman (Sleeper) | BUF | 6.5/10 | TD upside, trending up |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | 7/10 | Solid mid-QB2 with volume |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | 7.5/10 | Breakout matchup potential |
| Tez Johnson (💪 Flex) | TB | 6.5/10 | Explosive playmaker, strong flex |
| Cade Otton (Sleeper) | TB | 6.5/10 | Target share rising |
| Bucs Defense | TB | 2/10 | Bad matchup vs elite offense |
START ’EM
Josh Allen — QB, Bills
Allen continues doing Josh Allen things each week: producing through the air, picking up chunk rushing yards, and rarely offering a bad fantasy day. Tampa Bay’s defense has been soft recently, allowing big plays and mid-field breakdowns.
Projection: 2 passing TDs + 30 rushing yards.
James Cook — RB, Bills
The Bucs were gashed by both Detroit and New England, and Cook is positioned for one of his best games of the season. His usage near the goal line has increased, and Buffalo should control time of possession.
Projection: 1 TD with 90–110 total yards.
Khalil Shakir — WR, Bills
Shakir has taken full control of the WR1 role and has been extremely efficient. With Tampa Bay nursing multiple injuries in the secondary, this is another week for strong mid-WR2 production.
Projection: 70–90 yards with a shot at a score.
Sleeper: Keon Coleman — WR, Bills
Coleman has not been the breakout star Buffalo hoped for early, but last week’s touchdown may have sparked something. He should see high-value targets, especially on third downs and red-zone plays.
Projection: 6 catches, 60+ yards.
Baker Mayfield — QB, Buccaneers
Mayfield has been inconsistent, but this matchup offers volume. Buffalo gives up yards in the middle of the field and can be beaten on layered throws.
Projection: 225+ yards and a touchdown.
Emeka Egbuka — WR, Buccaneers
Egbuka benefited from Tez Johnson’s rise and Cade Otton’s resurgence, opening cleaner routes and spacing. The Bills allowed 30 points to Miami last week and have been vulnerable in coverage.
Projection: 65–85 yards with WR3 upside.
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💪 Tez Johnson — WR/FLEX, Buccaneers
One of the most exciting earn-it players in the league. Johnson has been consistently productive and gives Tampa Bay a dynamic element. They’ll need him to have a big game to keep up with Buffalo.
Projection: 5–8 targets, flexworthy stats.
Sleeper: Cade Otton — TE, Buccaneers
Otton’s volume has risen for three straight weeks, and he has become a reliable midfield safety valve.
Projection: 4–6 catches with TE1 upside in PPR.
Cade Otton, the “Do it All” TE, Ignites Offense in Week 10 – Briana Dix via Buccaneers.com
SIT ’EM
Buccaneers Defense
This is not the week to stream them. Tampa Bay consistently allows 20+ points outside the NFC South, and Josh Allen is one of the worst matchups for a defense lacking health.
Verdict: Hard sit.
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MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
This game projects as a fast-paced, high-energy battle with both teams fighting to stay in the race. Buffalo’s biggest edge comes from their offensive momentum: Cook is peaking, Shakir is reliable, and Allen remains matchup-proof. If they control the ground game early, the Bills should dictate the tempo.
Tampa Bay’s path to an upset runs through:
• Baker Mayfield is improving efficiency
• Tez Johnson hitting explosive plays
• Egbuka winning 1-on-1 matchups
• Cade Otton is continuing his rise
• Defense forcing a turnover or two
But with the Bucs trending down and the Bills trending up, Buffalo enters this game with the upper hand.
