New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Preview, Prediction & Odds | Week 5, 2025

Bills
New England Patriots (2-2) at Buffalo Bills (4-0)
Game Details: Sunday, October 5, 8 p.m. EST
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Where to Watch: NBC

Week 5 Matchup

An old rivalry is set to heat up again under the Sunday night lights. The undefeated Buffalo Bills, playing like a true powerhouse, host a New England Patriots team that’s finding its groove.  For the Patriots, it’s a chance to show their 2-2 start isn’t a fluke and that they can compete with the AFC’s best. For the Bills, it’s about defending their home turf, staying unbeaten, and reminding everyone why they’re the top team in the AFC East.

Adding to the drama, this will be the final regular-season game at Highmark Stadium, a venue that’s seen decades of fierce battles between these teams. 

Betting Odds

Team Spread Money Line Total
New England Patriots +8.5+340Over 49.5
Buffalo Bills -8.5-430Under 49.5

** Odds Subject to Change – Courtesy of FanDuel**

Tale of The Tape

New England PatriotsTeam Stats – Avg Per GameBuffalo Bills
25.5Points Per Game33.3
235Passing Yards Per Game240.5
101.3Rushing Yards Per Game163.5
20.3Opponents Points Per Game Allowed22.5
241.5Opponents Pass Yards Allowed 125.8
77.5Opponents Rush Yards Allowed 164.3

Statistics from various online sources and courtesy of ESPN

Buffalo Bills Jordan Phillips tries to grab unsuccessfully New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler who was running with the ball during first half action of the Bills home game against the New Orleans Saints in Orchard Park on Sept. 28, 2025.

Key Details

New England Patriots

The Patriots look like a team on the rise. After a shaky start to the season, Drake Maye has brought stability and efficiency to the offense. He’s been on the rise, leading the team to a 42-point performance against Carolina last week. That game showcased their versatility, with touchdowns coming from both the offense and special teams.

Patriots coach Mike Vrabel spoke about the challenge of playing in Buffalo: “I love the passionate fans. Driving into that stadium, it’s the same scene I’ve seen for 20 years. It’s a great sports town, and we’re excited for Sunday night.”

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are riding high at 4-0, one of only two unbeaten teams in the league. Josh Allen has been playing at an MVP level, racking up seven passing touchdowns with just one turnover in four games. Buffalo’s offense leads the NFL in touchdowns and rushing yards per game, powered by Allen and running back James Cook.

Prediction

Everything says that the point spread is too high. Last week, the Bills won easily, but did not cover. Coach Vrabel has come into Buffalo dozens of times and left with a victory when he was a player. All the warning signs are there…the Bills will not cover. Well, why listen now to warning signs?

Final Pick

Buffalo Bills  -8.5

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