The Bears have broken our hearts multiple times, so look, I get it. After diving into Chicago’s 2025 outlook, something doesn’t smell right about that 8.5-win total floating around sportsbooks. This is still the same organization that somehow made Matt Eberflus look like a defensive mastermind for five minutes before reality came crashing down. But the numbers tell a story that even the most cynical Bears fan should pay attention to.
Why the Bears Are Being Undervalued in 2025
Here’s what’s driving the skepticism: five measly wins in 2024, Caleb Williams looking like a deer in headlights half the time, and a defense that forgot how to tackle. Fair enough. But context matters, and context suggests Chicago got absolutely hammered by bad luck last season and horrendous coaching. Matt Eberflus cost the Bears games last season, and getting rid of him was a must.
Ben Johnson: The Offensive Coordinator Chicago Deserves
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room – or should I say, the genius who just walked into Halas Hall. Ben Johnson turned the Lions’ offense into a championship-caliber unit, and now he’s tasked with fixing whatever the hell Chicago was trying to accomplish on offense last year.
The Bears led the NFL in sacks allowed in 2024. Read that sentence again. The worst offensive line in football was somehow expected to protect a rookie quarterback while developing chemistry with new receivers. Johnson’s track record suggests he knows how to maximize young quarterback talent. More importantly, he knows how to scheme around protection issues – something Chicago desperately needed.
Caleb Williams: Year Two Should Tell the Real Story
Everyone loves to pile on Williams after his rookie campaign, but pump the brakes on that narrative. The kid was thrown into an impossible situation with no offensive line, a lame-duck coaching staff, and receivers who seemed to have concrete blocks for hands.
Rookie quarterbacks typically struggle. It’s not exactly breaking news. But Williams showed flashes of the arm talent and pocket presence that made him the No. 1 pick. With an actual offensive system and competent protection, expecting significant improvement isn’t wishful thinking – it’s logical. The learning curve is steep, but the improvement from Season 1 to Season 2 can be dramatic when the supporting cast gets upgraded.
Defense Still Has Pieces to Work With
Chicago’s defense wasn’t great in 2024, but it wasn’t historically bad either. They ranked 23rd in DVOA – mediocre, not catastrophic. With better offensive efficiency, keeping the defense off the field, and some strategic additions, this unit has room to improve. If Johnson can keep the offense on the field longer, reducing the defense’s snaps and improving field position, they should be better.
NFC North Reality Check
Everyone keeps talking about how tough the NFC North is, and they’re right – it’s a meat grinder. But let’s not act like the Bears are the only team facing adversity. The Lions lost several key coordinators. The Packers are still figuring out their identity with Jordan Love, and the Vikings are in transition mode with a new quarterback. Chicago is arguably the most improved team in the division. Johnson’s hire alone gives them a schematic advantage they haven’t had in years.
The Bottom Line on Bears Win Total
The Bears are primed for positive regression in a big way. They underperformed expectations by nearly two full games last season, faced brutal injury luck, and dealt with coaching instability. The 8.5-win total feels like Vegas is betting on Bears fans’ pessimism rather than actual team analysis. Will the Bears make the playoffs? That’s a different conversation. But winning nine or ten games? In a division where everyone has questions feels like the risk is worth the reward.
