Here we are again, staring down another season of “experts” telling us the Los Angeles Rams are destined for greatness. With their win total sitting at a comfortable 9.5 games, the betting public seems awfully confident this team will get double-digit wins. But before you mortgage the house on Sean McVay’s crew, let’s pump the brakes and take an honest look at what’s really going on at Sofi Stadium
The Stafford Situation Gets More Concerning by the Day
Let’s address the elephant in the room that everyone seems to be tiptoeing around. Matthew Stafford isn’t exactly getting younger, folks. The guy’s pushing 38, and while he managed to stay relatively healthy last season, the injury history is a problem. He’s even dealing with a back injury, which is no joke whatsoever. Sure, Stafford looked decent when he was actually on the field, but here’s the thing nobody wants to talk about: the Los Angeles Rams are one injury away from watching their season circle the drain faster than your paycheck at a Vegas casino. Jimmy Garoppolo or Stetson Bennett as your backup plan?
Cooper Kupp Departure: Addition by Subtraction or Just Subtraction?
Cooper Kupp departed the Los Angeles Rams during the offseason. Due to Kupp leaving, the Rams signed Davante Adams. On paper, it looks fantastic. Adams brings veteran leadership and those crispy route-running skills that made him a legend in Green Bay. But let’s be real here: chemistry matters in this league. Kupp and Stafford had something special, the kind of connection that develops over years of shared suffering and success. Will it transfer with Adams and Stafford?
Defensive Reality Check: The Schedule Doesn’t Lie
Here’s where things get spicy. The Los Angeles Rams defense ranked 26th in DVOA last season. Think about that for a second. A defense that already struggled mightily gets to face an even tougher slate of offenses. The addition of Poona Ford is nice and all, but one solid defensive lineman doesn’t magically transform a unit that got torched on a weekly basis. When you’re bleeding points, you better hope your offense can keep pace, and that brings us back to our aging quarterback situation. The defense is a big question mark with the Rams heading into the season.
Why the Under 9.5 Makes Perfect Sense
It is hard to bet against Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. However, the Los Angeles Rams are facing a perfect storm of concerns: an aging quarterback, defensive questions, a tougher schedule, and a receiving corps still figuring out its chemistry. There’s value in that Under 9.5 at +120, especially when you consider all the moving parts that need to align perfectly for this team to hit double digits again.
Final Thoughts: Tempering Expectations in Hollywood
The Los Angeles Rams aren’t going to be terrible. McVay won’t let that happen. But they’re also not the lock for 10+ wins that the betting public seems to think they are. This feels like a team destined for that frustrating 8-9 or 9-8 record that keeps you watching until the final week but ultimately leaves you empty-handed. Sometimes it’s recognizing when a team is being overvalued based on past glory rather than present reality. The Rams under 9.5 wins might not be the bet that gets you invited to the cool kids’ table, but it might just be the one that puts money in your pocket come January.
