The 10-2 and AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills head out west to take on the 6-6 Los Angeles Rams. Los Angeles is very in the thick of the NFC West race, sitting just one game back of the first-place Seahawks. Buffalo clinched the AFC East division on Sunday night’s 35-10 win over the 49ers. Josh Allen continues to put up MVP-type numbers, with his touchdowns and 28.42 fantasy point output.
Our DFS write-ups, are designed to spotlight some core plays to help you build a unique DFS lineup within your single game or main slate entries. In creating a successful lineup, we research and find positional values to see where you can save money and players with projected low ownership who can pay 2x-2.5x of their listed DFS salary.
Bills vs. Rams DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players we heavily lean on in this game. These players are in a good spot to put together a solid performance and have a favorable DFS matchup.
James Cook ($7.4k DraftKings and $8.5k Fanduel)
James Cook is the PPR overall RB12, which puts him in the RB1 conversation for the Bills. Cook has been rolling of late, averaging 17.9 fantasy points in his last three games, 18.58 in his last five games, and has 6 touchdowns for Buffalo.
Matthew Stafford ($5.7k DraftKings and $7.2k Fanduel)
We like Stafford as a DFS option for multiple reasons this week. First, he represents a pivot from Allen to a potential lower option on the slate, and you still get exposure to the game with the main slate’s highest implied game total of 49.5. Next, we get exposure to both Nacua and Kupp without having to choose between the two, with both priced at $8.6k and $8.6k, respectively.
There is definite concern here with the Bills defense ranked first in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but the Rams being at home eases that some. Stafford is also tied to an excellent play-caller in Sean McVay, averaging 38.66 pass attempts and 18.56 fantasy points in his last three home contests.
Bills vs. Rams DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side of things, here are a few of the players we recommend sitting in this one.
Amari Cooper ($5.1k DraftKings and $5.7k Fanduel)
You can put any Bills receiver as a recommended sit each week because it is a guessing game as to who is the team’s WR1. Amari Cooper was seemingly acquired and profiles as the best fit for that role, but it is yet to happen. Last week in his return to the lineup, Cooper had 3 catches for 12 yards. Now we know part of that was due to the weather conditions, but we are not convinced that wrist is 100%. Finally, it was Khalil Shakir who led the Bills wideouts in targets against the 49ers, so we are out on Cooper in week 14.
Demarcus Robinson ($4.2k DraftKings and $5.7k Fanduel)
The Rams passing targets, in essence, funnel through Kupp and Nacua. Both of those wideouts saw snap shares of 91% and 79%, respectively. Robinson ran as the WR3 last week but saw just 3 targets and 2 receptions. Robinson has not seen more than 2 catches since week 9 versus Seattle. Some might say this is an obvious sit and it probably is, but I reason that if you want a cheaper DFS option, there are better choices such as Ray Davis, Blake Corum, or Dawson Knox if Kincaid is inactive again.
Total Apex Lock of the Game
Josh Allen ($8k DraftKings and $8.9k Fanduel)
If you have followed us all season, Josh Allen will frequent our DFS lock of the game recommendation, and this game is no different. Allen is the fantasy overall QB5, the second highest-priced quarterback on the main slate, and most likely represents the player with the highest DFS floor in this game for the Bills.
Allen is averaging 21.0 fantasy points per game this season, and in his last two games, that number is at 26.7. Allen has not been below 20 points per game since week 5 versus the Texans. Instead of trying to guess which Bills receiver to play each week, we get exposure to the entire Buffalo passing offense by using Josh Allen. In DFS builds, you need at least 20 points from the quarterback spot, so lock Allen in for week 14!
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Kyren Williams ($7.3k DraftKings and $8.4k Fanduel)
If we are paying up for the Bills’ James Cook, then we are going to fade Williams this week. This allows us the opportunity to pay up for a top wide-out or tight end if we so choose. Williams is an obvious top DFS running back option every week but if we want exposure to the Rams running game, we will pivot to Blake Corum.
In the last four games, Williams has averaged 15 carries compared to 21 in the prior four, and versus New Orleans in week 13 saw a season-low 68% snap rate. Blake Corum, versus the Saints, got a season-high eight carries, 32% snap rate, and 27.5% rushing share. We are just concerned that at his price point, Williams will not be able to pay 2x his salary with what appears to be a somewhat diminished role.
Conclusion
These recommendations are designed to give you players we feel will be low-owned and good value and help you create a unique DFS build. We want a DFS lineup different from the masses and most likely made with an optimizer. Each week in DFS, your pay line for FanDuel is approximately 125 points, which equates to 2x per player. For example, a player with a $4500 salary needs 9 points. DraftKings pay line is approximately 134 points, which is 2.5x per player. So, for a $4500 salary, that player would need 9.9 points.
