AFC North Rivals meet again in Week 14, as the 3-9 Cleveland Browns travel to Pittsburgh to take on the 9-3 Steelers. Pittsburgh sits atop the AFC North, leading the Ravens by a game and a half. Cleveland may be in last place but has been very competitive of late, beating the Steelers back in week 12, 24-19.
Records are out the window when these two teams play, especially with Brown’s quarterback, Jameis Winston, putting up some gaudy passing numbers. This past Monday night, Jameis passed for 497 yards and 4 touchdowns. His counterpart, Russell Wilson, has rejuvenated the Pittsburgh passing offense and just went off for 414 yards and 3 touchdowns versus the Bengals.
Our DFS write-ups, are designed to spotlight some core plays to help you build a unique DFS lineup within your single game or main slate entries. In creating a successful lineup, we research and find positional values to see where you can save money and players with projected low ownership who can pay 2x-2.5x of their listed DFS salary.
Browns vs. Steelers DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players we are heavily leaning on in this game. These players are in a good spot to put together a solid performance and have a favorable DFS matchup.
George Pickens ($6.8k DraftKings and $7.5k Fanduel)
George Pickens is just the overall WR18 in fantasy but remains a threat to score with every touch. By using Pickens, we get a mid-tier priced DFS option that can give us WR1 output. In his last four games, he has averaged 8 targets per game and 13.15 fantasy points per game. What is holding him back is the lack of touchdown equity, but we feel that is coming this week as Cleveland’s defense is 31st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Pickens is 7th in the league in receiving yards and in the top 15 in targets, and the Browns have allowed the fifth most top-24 fantasy performances to wideouts. Fire up Pickens in DFS this week!
Jameis Winston ($5.4k DraftKings and $6.9k Fanduel)
We are rolling with both quarterbacks for start recommendations in this game. Winston’s passing volume alone should at least provide a decent floor for us this week, averaging over 43 passes a game in his last five starts. During that stretch Winston is averaging 24.54 fantasy points, has ten touchdown passes, and is the overall QB4. There is some concern with Pittsburgh ranked third in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks but with the expected volume, we feel comfortable recommending Winston in week 14.
Browns vs. Steelers DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side of things, here are a few of the players we recommend sitting in this one.
Jaylen Warren ($5.5k DraftKings and $5.9k Fanduel)
Jaylen Warren’s DFS salary is certainly cost-effective to use in your builds but the usage rate is concerning. Last week versus the Bengals, Warren had just an 11.5% rushing share and it was Cordarrelle Patterson who took the early down snaps when Harris briefly exited. Warren appears to be more of a third-down back for the Steelers and scored 10 fantasy points once all season. Cleveland ranks 10th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, so look elsewhere in DFS for salary-saving options at running back.
Nick Chubb ($5.9k DraftKings and $6.5k Fanduel)
Some might be surprised we are recommending a Nick Chubb sit, but upon further research, it made sense to us. Chubb’s last six games, he is averaging 8.98 fantasy points per game and only one game worthy of RB1 numbers. In addition, Jerome Ford appears to be eating into Chubb’s workload. In Monday night’s loss to the Broncos, Chubb had just a 39% rushing share, and Ford tied him in carries with 9.
Total Apex Lock of the Game
Russell Wilson ($5.9k DraftKings and $7.7k Fanduel)
Russell Wilson is still priced in the mid-tier range but gives you top-tier potential with the way he has played of late. In week 13, Wilson finished as QB4 and produced 30.86 fantasy points. In week 14, he gets a Brown’s defense ranked in the lower half of the league in fantasy points allowed to the position and just surrendered 294 yards passing to Bo Nix. In his last four games, Wilson is averaging just under 18 fantasy points per game. For our DFS lock recommendation, we like a player who can give us a high floor and Wilson provides us that with his recent play.
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Jerry Jeudy ($5.7k DraftKings and $6.1k Fanduel)
Yes, I know you are not sitting Jeudy, but we are tempering expectations. Jeudy blew up on Monday night for a 9-235-1 stat line, and across his last five games, he is averaging 19.58 PPR fantasy points per game. That stretch would put him as the overall WR2 right now, behind only Jamar Chase. We have to believe the Steelers will align Joey Porter Jr. across from Jeudy as much as possible, and no one is expecting another 39-point outburst. Porter Jr. has allowed just 33 receptions all season, and overall, the Steelers rank 6th versus the pass.
Conclusion
These recommendations are designed to give you players we feel will be low-owned and good value and help you create a unique DFS build. We want a DFS lineup different from the masses and most likely made with an optimizer. Each week in DFS, your pay line for the main slates in FanDuel is approximately 125 points, which equates to 2x per player. For example, a player with a $4500 salary needs 9 points. DraftKings pay line is approximately 134 points, which is 2.5x per player. So, for a $4500 salary, that player would need 9.9 points.
