This is the first in a series where I, remind you of the offseason moves and how they have a positive and negative effect for the upcoming season. In this article we look at the Running Back and who will have the biggest impact on the fantasy season.
I will also discuss how some players will have some regression this season, because of this off-season’s transactions, that most of you have forgotten about. What are some of the things that would affect a running back in the offseason?
In this article, we will not look at running backs entering the league from college. We will analyze running backs that were on an NFL roster last year.
The most impactful transaction that would affect a running back is his placement on the team’s depth chart. Did the team release a player, freeing up more playing time? Did the team sign a player that will result in a running back’s number of touches?
Another offseason move that would have an impact on a running back, would be a coaching change. Not always is the head coach the player caller, but in those situations, he does not, so be mindful of any changes with the coordinator positions.
Like real football, to have an impact on the game, a running back needs touches. Volume for a running back is key. What changes occurred this offseason that will have the most impact on the upcoming fantasy season for running backs?
Running Backs Negatively Affected by Offseason Moves
Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
I anticipate Joe Mixon with the Texans, to have some regression this season. I’m probably on an island on this take. Most are picking the Texans to win their division, heck, most Texas fans are booking their Super Bowl flights now.
As I mentioned earlier volume is key for fantasy running backs. Recent history suggests that Mixon is a durable workhorse with over 210 attempts in each of the last 2 years.
However, if you recall the Texans landed a stud at Quarterback. They also, traded for one of the most demanding receivers in the game, in Diggs, with a bevy of other playmakers at receiver. It’s clear to me that everyone is not going to get enough touches to make them happy. Plus, at this stage in his career, I can see him letting some of the younger legs…Pierce…develop in the blowout games.
I don’t see the Texans running the ball, and when they do pass, I expect them to target a receiver. Therefore, I see Mixon’s volume decrease anywhere from 10-15%.
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
Josh Jacobs to the Packers? What? How would this move negatively impact this running back this season? Volume is key. I don’t like the marriage between Jacob and the other talent in Green Bay. The Packers still have a red zone vulture in AJ Dillon, who will get all of the goal line and short yardage touches.
Lafluer has a history of using multiple running backs, and sometimes featuring the backup. Also, the Packers will have the “new” highest-paid QB once the season begins, to go along with the stable of talented young receiving corp. I don’t see Jacobs bouncing back to his 2022 form, I see a regression from the 2023 campaign in 2024.
Running Backs Positively Affected by Offseason Moves
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
The obvious move that impacted the running back market is Barkley to Philly. Last season the backfield in Philly was somewhat crowded. Also, they leaned heavily on the quarterback in the running game.
By the end of the season, Hurts appeared to be slowed physically and mentally. One would argue that was a result of him being worn down by running the ball. Out goes Swift to the Bear and in comes Barkley in what appears to be an ideal match between running back and playcaller.
No way Barkey can maintain the workload he has with close to 300 touches the past 2 seasons. He will see an increase in rushing yardage and touchdowns while they nurse Hurts to the playoffs.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
Henry to the Ravens seems like a perfect match between the player’s philosophy and running back. Historically, the Ravens are known for running the ball. Remember the 2023 playoff game? They were ridiculed for not running the ball. Which running back in recent years, gets more dominant as the game goes? Derick Henry.
Ok…are you picturing the Ravens running the ball in bad weather to ice a game in late October? Ravens let their top 2 other running backs leave to San Diego via free agency, their other top running back is coming off ACL, leaving Henry as the top dog.
Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
Moss to the Bengals seems like a stretch to be the running back sleeper for him but hear me out. Do you recall how productive he was filling in for the injured Jonathan Talyor last season? Over that 7-game span, he averages 15 points per game, with a backup QB.
Now, he takes over as the lead back in a potent Bengals offense. When teams doubled receivers last year, they would check it down to the running back. Setting the stage up for Moss to have a highly productive season.
Moss has shown his ability to have an every-down back, which will increase his volume, which has been relatively low over the past 2 seasons with roughly, 200 touches per season. I can see Moss getting that many carries this season. Moss is also the bigger back on the team, making him the feature back in goal-line situations.
I’m not saying he will be the league MVP, but I am saying that with him on your fantasy team, you are likely to be competitive in your league. Also, will likely be a cheap DFS option early in the season.
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