Week 12 in the NFL has six teams on bye, tied with the upcoming week 14 byes for the most all season. With the Bills, Falcons, Bengals, Jags, Saints, and Jets out of our lineups this week, we need to pay more attention to detail with who we roll as our starters as we fill in for some of our studs. Let’s look at running backs ranked outside the top 10 players this week as potential targets to plug in, or keep out of our lineups, whether for season-long leagues or daily fantasy plays. LFG!
Baller Running Backs Week 12
Brian Robinson Jr. & Ekeler – Washington vs. Dallas Cowboys
If you need any encouragement to start the Commanders’ running backs this week, I’m here to give you that action, boss. Brian Robinson Jr. is ranked 14th in PPR scoring on Fantasy Pros, and Austin Ekeler is ranked 24th. Both of these players are poised to outperform those rankings this week massively! Not only are the Commanders coming off of a mini bye week after playing on Thursday Night Football last week, but they are in a total smash matchup at home against the pitiful Dallas Cowboys run defense.
The Dallas Cowboys have allowed THE MOST rushing touchdowns in the NFL through 11 weeks, with 18. The Cowboys have also allowed the second-most rushing yards per game. Maybe more than anything, the Cowboys are short on motivation this season. They do not play as a team. They look like they are not having any fun on the football field and they roll over and continue taking beatings repeatedly. Odds makers heavily weigh motivation when it comes to projections and the Cowboy’s season is lost and they have an incentive to tank.
Even against the Eagles’ highly ranked run defense in week 11, the Commanders still ran the football 28 times and passed it 32 times. They maintain a balanced attack, no matter the opponent. According to Pro Football Network, the Commanders’ running backs have the 7th-ranked offensive line opening holes for them. Though Robinson and Ekeler did not have high rushing yardage totals against the stout Eagles rush defense, Robinson got the carries in the red zone and salvaged his fantasy day with a touchdown, despite it being his first game back from a hamstring injury he suffered in week 8.
Ekeler has stayed consistently busy in the short passing game, being the primary dump-off option for Jayden Daniels on passing downs and the preferred target on screen passes for the Commanders all season, boosting his value in PPR scoring. Ekeler has also been the primary kick-return specialist for the Commanders this season, averaging over 30 yards per return on 16 returns, which is bonus value in leagues that count return yards for skill players. Ekeler has amassed 1170 all-purpose yards this season, even with missing one game with a concussion.
Robinson and Ekeler are in line for nice fantasy days against their division rival opponent at home in Landover, MD. Robinson gets a few days of extra rest and rehab for his hamstring and the veteran Ekeler has a few more days to recover from his busy night against the Eagles in week 11.
With Jayden Daniels’ rookie passing acumen being exposed in the past few weeks, the game plans for the Commanders will go through the rushing attack. There are plenty of opportunities for both players to provide good value, so make sure you get a piece of that guaranteed volume that fantasy managers love.
Kareem Hunt – Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Yes, there is a chance that Isaiah Pacheco plays this week in his first action back after breaking his fibula in week 2. However, the Chiefs do not need him in this game and it would be foolish to put him out there too soon. The Chiefs have a division game at home next week against the Raiders, after being on the road for two weeks. It makes a lot more sense for Pacheco to make his return next week, but if he does return this week, there is plenty of opportunity for Pacheco and Hunt to eat in their week 12 matchup against the Carolina Panthers’ last-ranked rushing defense.
The Panthers allow over 160 rushing yards and almost 2 rushing touchdowns per game. Kareem Hunt has averaged 13.9 PPR fantasy points per game in the last three weeks against three rushing defenses ranked in the top half of the NFL. The Bills, Broncos, and Buccs only allow an average of 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game, cumulatively. Hunt is due for a huge positive regression against Carolina’s terrible rushing defense. The Chiefs will not need to throw the ball much to win this game, so it should be a feast on the ground for Hunt. Monitor Pacheco’s status just in case.
Faller Running Backs Week 12
Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Hubbard is ranked the 17th running back overall in PPR scoring for week 12. He has been on a hot streak since the Panthers gave him a contract extension, averaging 18.4 PPR fantasy points per game in the last three weeks. That’s good enough for him to rank as the #8 running back in fantasy over that span. However, the winds of change are a blowin’ for the Panthers backfield.
Not only are they facing the 3rd-best rushing defense in the NFL this week against the Chiefs, but his backfield running mate Jonathan Brooks is looking to make his season debut, which would cut into Hubbard’s touches. The Panthers’ run game could also get game-scripted out if they fall behind early or significantly against the 9-1 Chiefs. Temper expectations if you have to start Hubbard this week, but I would rather roll with a player like 23rd-ranked Rachaad White or 26th-ranked Rico Dowdle.
D’Andre Swift – Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Swift has essentially been THE ENTIRE Bears’s offense for the past three weeks, but that still isn’t saying much as he has only been averaging 12.7 PPR fantasy points per game. Swift has mostly relied on one or two big plays per game to achieve his fantasy value this year, but this week he faces a Vikings rushing defense that does not give up big plays to running backs. Swift is ranked as the 18th-best running back in PPR scoring for week 12. That is too high.
Minnesota has allowed just 4 rushing touchdowns through 10 games and allows a mere 74.4 rushing yards per game – both top marks in the league. The Bears have the 25th-worst offensive line in the NFL and a struggling rookie QB. Plus, Roschon Johnson steals most of the goalline carries away from Swift. You can find a better opportunity to score fantasy points with lower-ranked players like Bucky Irving or J.K. Dobbins.
Conclusion on Running Backs
Running back matchups matter. There are only a handful of running backs in the league who we can consider matchup-proof, weekly starters no matter what. It’s always important to look at the situations surrounding players who might be ranked higher or lower than they should be for any given week.
Factors like injuries, matchups, weather, and coaching make a difference in who you should start. Look at the recent body of work and see what kind of competition it was against. Can we anticipate similar production? This is why I dissect the running back data for you, crafting Ballers and Fallers, helping YOU to win your week!
