UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Prediction, Odds and Best Bet | June 1, 2024

The countdown to UFC 302 has begun as the promotion is set to host another event in Newark, New Jersey for the second consecutive year. The event will be headlined by promotional lightweight champion Islam Makhachev defending his title against fan-favorite veteran Dustin Poirier.

Makhachev has been the UFC champion since his submission win over Charles Oliveira at UFC 280 but will be attempting his first title defense against a bonafide lightweight contender. Since winning the belt, Makhachev has collected two wins over former featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski.

Poirier will enter his third undisputed UFC championship fight, losing his previous two attempts to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Oliveira. Since losing to Oliveira, Poirier has gone 2-1, with his most recent performance against Benoit Saint-Denis putting him back into the title picture.

Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Odds and Fight Details

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View the moneyline, point spread and round total for Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier according to DraftKings Sportsbook below:

Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Prediction and Best Bet

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The Cinderella story of the week will be Dustin Poirier. Considering the recent gimmick he has been playing on social media, it would not be surprising to see a high volume of wagers placed on Poirier as an underdog, specifically his submission prop.

Poirier will be the better striker but overall, there are few matchups worse for him in the division than Islam Makhachev. In two of his three most recent fights, Poirier has been taken down a combined six times by Michael Chandler and Benoit Saint-Denis. Neither of those fighters has the wrestling skills of Makhachev, who has landed a takedown in all but one of his fights that did not end in the first round.

Even worse, Poirier has been controlled for a combined 10 minutes by Chandler and Saint-Denis as his wrestling defense and grappling have deteriorated with age. Poirier has become infamous for his habit of attempting guillotine submissions but has never completed one in his career and put himself in compromised positions on several occasions against Saint-Denis.

The odds of Makhachev finding a submission are high, considering he has done so 11 times in his career. In his two previous undisputed title fights, Poirier was submitted both times, including once to Makhachev’s close friend Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Many like to compare Makhachev to Nurmagomedov. While they share similarities, Makhachev is the much more competent striker who prefers to chase submissions with his grappling, whilst Nurmagomedov has often been more aggressive with his ground-and-pound attacks.

For as good of a striker as Makhachev is, he will not out-strike Poirier. His team understands that. When Poirier gets in trouble on the ground, he leaves several openings, and Makhachev has completed 60 percent of his submission attempts in the UFC, per UFC stats.

Best bet: Islam Makhachev by Submission (+100)