When I started researching this article, I initially thought of proving Trevor Lawrence was a top-12 quarterback. After digging into some numbers, it became clear that he is criminally underrated in most rankings. I believe that not only is Lawrence a top-12 quarterback this season, but he has top-10 potential and is a better value than most of the players ranked ahead of him.
This season is make or break for Lawrence. He can firmly place himself in the Franchise QB conversation with a great season, or if he stays stagnant or regresses, the conversation can shift sharply around whether or not he is good enough to lead a team to a championship. Why Trevor Lawrence is a Top 10 fantasy QB in 2024
Crunching The Numbers
Deleted: While Press Taylor has been the offensive coordinator since 2022, he didn’t start calling plays until 2023. There is plenty of evidence suggesting that quarterbacks benefit substantially from continuity at the play-calling position, which is something Lawrence has not had up to this point in his career.
Some of his stats regressed slightly from 2022 to 2023, but nothing seems to be a major cause for concern. In 2022, he threw for 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns while completing 66.3 percent of his passes. In 2023, those numbers fell to 4,016 yards with 21 touchdowns at a 65.6 percent completion percentage.
Not every number was down from 2022 to 2023. His QBR stayed the same at 56.1. His passing yards per game increased from 241 in 2022 to 251 in 2023. Trevor had 70 rushing attempts for 339 yards in 2023, up from 62 rushing attempts for 291 yards in 2022, in one fewer game.
While you can’t depend on T-Law for his rushing ability consistently, he isn’t a statue in the pocket either. Most rushing touchdowns will be improvised if a play falls apart in the red zone, but he is good for a few scores on the ground each season to help with overall touchdowns for fantasy points.
Lawrence finally has some stability at the play-calling position, head coach Doug Pederson heading into his third season with Jacksonville, and some familiar offensive weapons like Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne. Lawrence should have no issue putting up the best numbers of his career.
Drafting For Ceiling vs Drafting For Floor
Most rankings have some sort of combination of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes as their top-ranked quarterbacks. After that, the rankings get less certain of what you’re getting. Most quarterbacks in the 5-10 range are guys who have a high ceiling but also have some major injury questions.
I am not saying Trevor Lawrence is going to be a league-winning quarterback who is going to set records in fantasy points scored. But he is a solid option with top-10 upside that you can take later in the draft which in turn allows you to build a championship-caliber roster at other positions.
Everyone’s draft will unfold differently, so there’s no way to say for certain who is going to go in what round of your draft. If somehow you find yourself picking between Allen and Lawrence in the same round, then, by all means, go with Allen.
But more realistically, there is going to be a run of quarterbacks to go early in the draft, and with the right strategy in place, you can build some depth at the skill positions in your lineup early. And then plan on taking a quarterback in Lawrence later in the draft who has only missed one career game and has finished as QB7 and QB10 the last two seasons respectively.
While he may not be the sexiest quarterback pick, he has finished in the top 10 at his position every year after his rookie season, and you won’t tank your season by reaching for a quarterback too early who may miss half the games due to injury.
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