Hello, Western Conference Finals! The Thunder and T-Wolves bring us high-salaried/minute studs and a few sneaky value plays. Let’s cut through the noise and find the optimal clicks for our lineup. Both DraftKings and FanDuel roll out multiple contests after a day off for the NBA on Monday. In the playoffs, we need elite production, a few values, and avoiding traps that give us no real upside. Here’s Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em for May 20th.
Lock of the Game
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
DK Salary: $12,000 | Flex Ownership: 42.5 – 52.5% | Captain Ownership: 25 – 35%
FD Salary: $15,600 | Flex Ownership: 50 – 60% | Captain Ownership: 25 – 35%
SGA is an unskippable anchor. He’s looking to play 38 minutes, and at 1.44 FPPM, our target score is 50 – 60 fantasy points. He dominates usage and scoring for both sites. Against Minnesota’s defensive front, he will still bring in heavy ownership, as he should. He offers an incredible ceiling opportunity and a firm floor. If you’re feeling insane, fade him because only about 10% of the field will be running lineups without him in some capacity. I’m not taking that risk personally in a pivotal game 1.
Start ‘Em
Alex Caruso
DK Salary: $4,800 | Flex Ownership: 31 – 41% | Captain Ownership: 2.5 – 7.5%
FD Salary: $5,400 | Flex Ownership: 30 – 40% | Captain Ownership: 2.5 – 7.5%
Caruso brings us some tasty value with a 24-point goal thanks to a 25-minute projection and a .93 FPPM. This value ranks highest among mid-tier guards on the slate thanks to his peripheral stat contributions like steals, assists, and 3-pointers. With a digestible ownership, it makes sense to pair SGA with him. If he can rack up some threes, he will be on his way to a ceiling game.
Aaron Wiggins
DK Salary: $2,000 | Flex Ownership: 30% – 40% | Captain Ownership: 1% – 6%
FD Salary: $2,000 | Flex Ownership: 10 – 20% | Captain Ownership: 0 – 2%
Wiggins is the best punt or player under $2k. At near-min salary, he’s projected for 14 minutes. With a .88 FPPM, he gives us a high probability of hitting value. We only need a few extra stats to get him over the 1.0 FPPM mark for a 5x value. His ownership shows industry backing. With limited risk and solid minutes, Wiggins can get lineups to high-end stacks to finish in the top 1% of GPPs.
Sit ‘Em
Jaden McDaniels
DK Salary: $7,400 | Flex Ownership: 25 – 35% | Captain Ownership: 2 – 7%
FD Salary: $8,600 | Flex Ownership: 25 – 35% | Captain Ownership: 3 – 8%
Minuteman Jaden McDaniels is on the court at around 38 but is not optimizing his fantasy point ability. The lack of a ceiling does not justify the current salary on both sites, despite his real-life impact. His box score proves it, as he has not reached 5x value once in May. His tiny .74 FPPM is not enough juice. His salary caps his optimal lineup ability, and he would have to become the primary playmaker for the T-Wolves to hit it. That is unlikely to happen in a Conference Playoff game.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
DK Salary: $4,200 | Flex Ownership: 15% – 25% | Captain Ownership: 1% – 3%
FD Salary: $2,400 | Flex Ownership: 15% – 25% | Captain Ownership: 0% – 3%
My favorite part of writing Timberwolves content is recommending an NAW sit; usually, that is the right play. That point rings true this evening, as his fantasy point production is erratic at best. He failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in three of the last five, including one disgusting 1.5 DK point game on May 4th. The only chance he has at a ceiling game is a blowout, and you will never see a blowout prediction from me. It’s too hard to forecast. Stay away from volatile minutes and sub-5% usage landmine.
Fade of the Game
Bench Players
Jaylin Williams & Isiah Joe
The basic breakdown goes like this: neither offers upside or minutes to justify inclusion due to a crucial Game 1. Williams is projected for 8 minutes and already has a low FPPM. Joe can only hit the ceiling if he’s bombing three or more shots beyond the three-point line. The T-Wolves defense will shut that down (ironically, it may be NAW doing that defensive dirty work).
Fade two salary savers in today’s games. The main reason is that hardcore DFS players who use optimizers will smash these plays because of their price. The problem is that these two players have limited paths to blow up games. When the optimizers align, you will see ownership way too high on these cheapies and a lot of duplicate lineups that will diminish your ROI. GET DIFFERENT. Uniqueness in Showdown is how you hit one of the huge payouts. Don’t be scared to leave your salary on the table.
