Stefon Diggs is the newest acquisition for the Houston Texans from the Buffalo Bills in the offseason. Diggs has a year to prove himself because the Texans voided the last two years of the contract after the deal was done back in March of this year.
Diggs joins an youthful, exciting offense led by the exciting sophomore quarterback CJ Stroud. Diggs joins a WR core that has Nico Collins, Tank Dell, John Metchie III etc, as the veteran presence of that core now which is a huge boost for the offense.
The question is will Diggs be the same receiver he was in Buffalo and Minnesota or will Diggs suffer from production due to having to share more targets with other stud receivers around him down in Houston, Texas. Let’s look at Diggs’ production from last year.
Stefon Diggs 2023 Production
Stefon Diggs had 107 receptions for 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns last season, but did have a drop off when the Bills changed offensive coordinators from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady in the late stretch of last season. Diggs in Weeks 10-18 last year, only finished as the WR45 or higher only twice, which is a scary story for fantasy owners because of the fact that that’s where you win your leagues is that stretch run. The fact that Diggs has been essentially a no show the last two seasons in the second half is a major red flag for many people.
Diggs does have great starts to his campaigns, but the drop offs he get every year and the drama he caused with quarterback Josh Allen down the stretch of a couple of games including that playoff game against the Chiefs at home was not a good look for Diggs last season for himself or his fantasy owners down the stretch of their playoff matchups. Now let’s look at the projections in 2024.
Stefon Diggs 2024 Projections
ESPN has Diggs as the WR17 in 2024 with 86 receptions for 1,039 yards and six touchdowns. The main thing to look at with the ESPN projection is the targets. ESPN is having him down thirty targets from the 2023 output, from 160 to 130 in the 2024 projection which is a huge story because of the value of Collins and Dell specifically. Like I wrote in the Dell piece, Diggs will bring value to the team by being used to having the coverage shifted to him which should help Collins and Dell out, but that hurts Diggs in the long run.
Meanwhile Fantasy Pros has Diggs as WR 24 in the ECR rankings for 2024 which is down a lot from his WR 9 finish on their metrics from last season. Fantasy Pros projections of Diggs is 84 receptions for 1,020 yards and seven touchdowns. So pretty similar to the ESPN projections overall but the two value him differently enough to provide a unique perspective, but both are essentially saying the same thing when your looking at the numbers deep. Think of Diggs as a WR2 in fantasy even though he’ll probably be the No 1 option down in Houston, because of the team spreading the ball around to different weapons.
Final Thoughts
Stefon Diggs will be a low-tier WR1, high-end WR2 this year in fantasy, that I would avoid unless he’s available in the fourth round. There are so many options I would rather have as an owner than Diggs, including Devonta Smith, Brandon Aiyuk, Jaylen Waddle, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Terry McClaurin, etc.
Those guys I named all have way higher ceilings this year in fantasy than Diggs in my estimation. Diggs will be solid but won’t be the difference maker he was in the past but the situation could change if the health dynamics change around him if Collins or Dell get hurt for the Texans opening target shares up.
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