Week 12 Thursday Football brings us an AFC North battle between the 8-2 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 2-8 Cleveland Browns. The Steelers defeated the Baltimore Ravens 18-15 last Sunday to take over sole possession of first place in the AFC North. Pittsburgh stopped a late two-point conversion attempt by Baltimore and was able to run out the clock to secure the win.
The Browns are headed in the other direction as they lost the Saints 35-14. Cleveland has lost two straight games and seven of eight to fall into last place. The Steeler’s defense continues to shine as they shut down Lamar Jackson and the potent Ravens offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players we are heavily leaning on in this game. These players are in a good spot to have a solid performance and a favorable DFS matchup.
Russell Wilson ($6k DraftKings; $15.5k Fanduel)
Wilson represents the biggest chalk play in this game from a DFS perspective, priced as the highest player on FanDuel. Wilson has been up and down in his last four starts. In two games, he averaged 21.98 fantasy points, and in the other two just 10.55. Last week was mixed results versus a porous Raven’s pass defense with multiple trips into the red zone but no touchdown passes.
On the other hand, Wilson does have 6 touchdown passes over the above-mentioned four-game stretch. The Browns are middle of the pack ranking 15th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. We are also expecting the newly acquired wideout Mike Williams snap count to continue to rise, giving Wilson another red zone weapon.
David Njoku ($5.7k DraftKings; $12.5k Fanduel)
David Njoku has been a steady target stream at the tight end position since Jameis Winston took over and is a fringe TE1, sitting as the overall TE13. In three of his last four games, he has topped 14 fantasy points, averaged 9.25 targets, and scored 2 touchdowns. Pittsburgh can be a bit more vulnerable to the pass and ranks just 14th in fantasy points allowed to the tight end. Njoku’s DFS salary is also the fourth highest in this game so we are right in line with our recommendation.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side, here are a few of the players we recommend sitting in this one.
Najee Harris ($6.2k DraftKings; $12k Fanduel)
We are a bit concerned with using Najee Harris this week in DFS. First is the increasing role of Jaylen Warren now that he is healthy. Last week versus Baltimore, Warren had his best fantasy output all season with 8.8 points, 13 touches, and 67 total yards. The week prior versus the Commandeers, he had 16 touches for 95 total yards. Warren is eating into Harris’ volume and capping his potential output.
Harris checks as the PPR overall RB22, which is a solid RB2, but saw only 52.9% of the rushes in week 11 and in week 10 it was at 47.7%. Second point, the Browns are 6th in points allowed to the position, the better DFS option to us is Jaylen Warren at $9k.
Jerry Jeudy ($5.9k DraftKings; $11k Fanduel)
Jerry Jeudy was fantastic last week and probably a slate-winning play if you had him in your DFS builds. Jeudy went for 6-142-1 and 26.2 fanduel points. Keep in mind that 75 yards off that was from somewhat a scramble drill that he broke contain from the Saint’s secondary. It feels like we are chasing points using Jeudy this week and in his five prior games, he averaged 5.92 points per game. Jeudy will also most likely be super chalky and the Steeler’s defense is ranked 9th in points allowed to wideouts.
Total Apex Lock of the Game
George Pickens ($6.9k DraftKings; $13k Fanduel)
We talked about Pickens in this same spot last week in our full slate write-up. His fantasy output has rocketed since Russell Wilson was inserted as the Steelers QB1. Pickens continued his strong run last week with his 8-89 stat line with 12 targets. The only thing keeping Pickens from being in the WR1 category is his lack of touchdowns, but we could be in for a big week as the Cleveland defense ranks 29th in points allowed to the position. The Browns are also just 16th in the league versus the pass, so fire up George Pickens in your DFS builds this week.
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Jameis Winston ($5.7k DraftKings; $15k Fanduel)
With this being mostly a single-game slate, we are using Winston in our fade spot. He will be most likely a part of your DFS builds but has a difficult match-up. Pittsburgh ranks second in fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position and just held Lamar Jackson to 14.9 points in week 11 and a QB24 finish. However, Winston is averaging 23.09 points in his last three starts with six touchdown passes. We are fading the potential production versus the stout Steeler’s defense.
Conclusion
Pittsburgh-Cleveland currently has the lowest implied game total of the week at 36.5, so this is not predicated to be a fantasy points bonanza. The DFS pricing listed for FanDuel is for the single-game DFS contests. Some possible sleeper and lower-owned options for us include Cedric Tillman at $10.5k and Mike Williams at $9.5k.
Our top play is George Pickens, who we feel is due for that monster game due to positive touchdown regression. Pickens has just 2 touchdowns but should be at around 6 based on the volume. Do not be surprised if Cleveland plays well, this is a huge rivalry, and respected money is being wagered on them.
