Week 16 Monday Night Football heads to Title Town, with the 5-9 New Orleans Saints taking on the 10-4 Green Bay Packers. The Saints have not been eliminated from playoff contention but need to win out and get help to get in. New Orleans lost a close game to Washington last week, 20-19 and there are conflicting reports on Derek Carr’s playing status for this game and the rest of the season.
It will be Spencer Rattler if Carr is out again and running back Alvin Kamara is doubtful with a groin injury. The Pack will clinch a playoff berth win a win but with three combined losses to Detroit and Minnesota, are most likely going the wild card route in the post-season. Green Bay is relatively healthy from a DFS perspective.
This game will be a DFS single-game contest option and part of the late Sunday-Monday contests. Our DFS write-ups are designed to spotlight some core plays to help you build a unique DFS lineup within your single game or main slate entries. In creating a successful lineup, we research and find positional values to see where you can save money and players with projected low ownership who can pay 2x-2.5x of their listed DFS salary.
Saints vs. Packers DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players that we are leaning on heavily in this game. These players are in a good spot to put together a solid performance and have a favorable DFS matchup.
Kendre Miller ($5.3k DraftKings and $6.1k Fanduel)
With Alvin Kamara doubtful for this one, we will be all over Kendre Miller in this one. Unfortunately so will the masses, but we can get unique elsewhere. Interim head coach Darren Rizzi has pumped up Miller since he took over and he now has a chance to take over the feature role in the Saints backfield. Miller should used similarly to Kamara and the Packers have allowed a top 24 running back performance in each of the past six weeks. If Miller has a usage rate anywhere near what Kamara gets, we should be in good shape, and with his DFS price tag it is worth the risk!
Christian Watson ($5k DraftKings and $6.3k Fanduel)
Christian Watson is another low-risk, high-reward DFS play based on price tag. Watson has big play ability, evidenced by his team-leading 21.4 yards per catch and 12.2 yards per target. Since week 10, New Orleans has been bottom seven in deep passing yards allowed per game, and that pairs perfectly with Watson’s deep target percentage. In addition, the Saints have yielded seven top-24 finishes to wideouts since week 10. Watson is no doubt a boom-or-bust play but has put up nearly 10 fantasy points per game in his last three outings. If we can get a touchdown, he will smash his DFS salary.
Saints vs. Packers DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side, here are a couple of players we recommend sitting in this one.
Spencer Rattler ($4.6k DraftKings and $6.7k Fanduel)
No surprise here with this selection, Rattler has to go into a hostile environment in prime-time and face a defense that has allowed just two QB1 fantasy performances in the last six weeks. In his starts, Rattler’s passing metrics are among the worst in yards per attempt and passer rating. Overall, the Green Bay defense is not a terrible match-up for opposing quarterbacks as they are middle of the road in passing yards allowed, but Rattler has not yet shown the acumen to take advantage of opposing defenses.
Jayden Reed ($6k DraftKings and $6.6k Fanduel)
What has happened to Jayden Reed? Even though he is ranked as the overall PPR WR20, Reed has cooled off big time of late. He has not topped 34 receiving yards since week 9 and the Saint’s defense has been stout versus slot receivers. In the past six games, they are ranked 14th in fantasy points allowed and tops in points per target.
Reed has reached double-digit fantasy points once in his last five outings, which included a one-target-zero-point game versus Detroit. What has saved Reed, is the 3 touchdowns he has over that period, but as you know that is the hardest situation to account for in fantasy.
Total Apex Lock of the Game
Jordan Love ($6.2k DraftKings and $7.7k Fanduel)
We are going to Jordan Love for our DFS lock play, with the Saints having been bottom 7 in passing yards allowed per game since week 10. Green Bay has run more of late but Love has been efficient when he does pass, being best in the league in yards per attempt and passer rating the past five weeks. With the return of Romeo Doubs, Love now has all his wide receivers at his disposal and by rostering him you have exposure to all of his weapons. Lock in Jordan Love this week!!
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Marquez Valdez-Scantling ($4.2k DraftKings and $5.8k Fanduel)
Valdez-Scantling has been operating as the Saints WR1 since the absence of Chris Olave, but with Rattler under center, we are leary of his production. As we stated above, Rattler’s passing metrics are among the worst in the league. MVS is not a sit for us but a buyer beware due to his situation.
Green Bay is middle of the pack in PPR points allowed to perimeter wide receivers and allowed only three top-24 wide receiver finishes in the past six weeks. Finally, MVS has scored just 14.9 total fantasy points in the past two games, making him a DFS fade for us in week 16.
Conclusion
These recommendations are overall designed to give you players we feel will be low-owned or a good value when you create your DFS builds. We want a DFS lineup that is different from the masses and most likely made with an optimizer. Each week in DFS, your pay line for FanDuel is approximately 125 points, which equates to 2x per player. For example, a player with a $4500 salary needs 9 points. DraftKings pay line is approximately 134 points, which is 2.5x per player. So, for a $4500 salary, that player would need 9.9 points.
Also consider, Packer’s wide-out Romeo Doubs who scored 2 touchdowns last week, and tight end Tucker Kraft. On the Saint’s end, consider tight end Juwan Johnson.
