Golden State Warriors (3-2) vs. Houston Rockets (2-3)
Game Details: Friday, April 2nd, 2025 @ 9:00 Eastern
Location: Chase Center, San Fransico, CA
Where to Watch: ESPN
The Golden State Warriors hold a 3-2 lead over the Houston Rockets, and tonight’s Game 6 at the Chase Center opens the curtains for a series-clincher in front of a roaring San Fran home crowd. Postseason icon Steph Curry looks to capitalize on his team’s playoff experience and close out a young Rockets team that continues to struggle on the road.
The Rockets will do everything they can to stay in the series thanks to a breakout from Alperen Sengun. We are going to exploit some prop edges via teams’ playoff tendencies. A full breakdown of player props, game line predictions, and market-based insight using data and simulations takes us on a journey to Proptown below. Here’s Game 6 Best Player Props.
Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | O/U | Money Line |
 | -5.5 (-105) | Over 207 (-110) | -215 |
 | +5.5 (-115) | Under 207 (-110) | +180 |
Apex Tale Of The Tape
| Team Stats | |
| 103.6 | Points Per Game | 104.8 |
| 39.4 | Rebounds Per Game | 46 |
| 24 | Assists Per Game | 20 |
| 4 | Blocks Per Game | 5.2 |
| 9.4 | Steals Per Game | 7.6 |
| 43% | Field Goal Percentage | 45.4% |
| 35.7% | Three Point Percentage | 37.3% |
| 75.8% | Free Throw Percentage | 4 |
| 45.4% | Opp. Field Goal Percentage | 43% |
| 37.3% | Opp. Three Point Percentage | 35.7% |
| 18.4 | Fouls Per Game | 21.2 |
Projected Starting 5’s
| Position | |
| Stephen Curry | PG | Fred VanVleet |
| Brandin Podziemski | SG | Jalen Green |
| Buddy Hield | SF | Amen Thompson |
| Jimmy Butler | PF | Dillon Brooks |
| Draymond Green | C | Alperen Sengun |
Best Player Props
Stephen Curry Over 4.5 3s (+116)
Give this man a spoon and a big white hat because he is cooking tonight. He’s hit this mark in three of the five games this series and is at home tonight, where he averages 4.8 made threes and 11.2 attempts in the playoffs. This prop is noteworthy due to our sample size on Curry in elimination games.
Since 2021, he has averaged 5.6 made threes on 12.1 attempts. More interestingly, his usage jumps 9% in the first half. The + money is a misprice due to his past performance and faster pace at home. The +116 implies a 46.3% probability, but our model has it at 58.7%. Let’s take the 12.4% edge and see if past elimination game performances come to fruition tonight.
Alperen Sengun Over 10 Rebounds (+100)
Sengun’s postseason breakout should excite Rockets fans. He is averaging 11 rebounds this series and has hit this mark in three out of five games. Sengun is getting leverage due to the Warriors’ small-ball lineups. Golden State allows the third-highest rebounding rate this postseason at 52.3%.
He leads the Rockets in rebounds per game (16.4) and converts at a 63.2% rate. In an elimination scenario, the young center should get every possible minute. We have him at 34 minutes, creating a 63.1% probability of hitting the over. We can run to the books on an 11.9% edge which, for reference, is almost precisely the same edge a casino has on a single roll Craps bet of 2,3 or 12.
Brandin Podziemski Over 3.5 Assists (-132)
While Jonathan Kuminga‘s development halts to a standstill, Brandin Podziemski’s grows like bamboo. His off-ball playmaking correlates beautifully with Curry. Podziemski averages 3.2 assists and 28.6 minutes a game this series and has hit this mark in four out of the last six games. The key to note is that he was sick in Game 2, severely swinging his current assist and minutes stats.
Without that game, he averages four assists per game and well over 30 minutes. He should play 33+ minutes, and if the game is close, that could sneak up to 38ish. Green is only averaging 2.2 assists this series, opening up more opportunities for the shooting guard.
The implied probability is 56.5%, but our model gives this a 63.8% hit rate. A 7.3% edge is not our best bet, especially at -132 odds, but it correlates well with Curry getting hot from three-point land. With the Warriors keeping a tight rotation tonight, Podziemski’s assist opportunities should be there.
Betting Trends
| Betting Stats (playoff series) | |
| 3 – 2 | W/L | 2 – 3 |
| 2 – 3 | ATS | 3 – 2 |
| Over 3, Under 2 | O/U | Over 3, Under 2 |
Prediction
This game feels like a vintage Golden State playoff farewell to Houston in a 109-to-101-type battle. The physicality has faltered in the last two games due to fatigue. Chef Curry is getting hot and should prove that the Rockets need a massive upgrade in their young core’s offensive department to extend post-season runs. Sprinkle a unit on the total game over and a unit on the Warriors covering at home to add to these props. Let’s hit some bets and enjoy the first night of our weekend, so cheers!
