Cincinatti Reds (20-24) vs. Chicago White Sox (14 – 29)
Game Details: Thursday May 15th, 12:30 Eastern
Location: Great American Ball Park
Bryse Wilson (R) vs Nick Martinez (R)
Where to Watch: MLB.TV
The Chicago White Sox are set to face the Cincinnati Reds in a Thursday lunch game at Great American Ball Park. While both teams sit near the bottom of their respective divisions, the matchup presents some betting edges we want to exploit thanks to a gap in book odds and probability. We have two player-specific markets and an under to analyze. Let’s break down three of the highest ROI plays for May 15th in Preview, Predictions & Odds.
Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total Runs | Money Line |
| -1.5 (-120) | Over 9.5 (+100) | -230 |
 | +1.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-122) | +190 |
Apex Tale of The Tape
Projected Starting Pitchers H2H
| Nick Martinez | Player Stats | Bryse Wilson |
| 1-4 | W/L | 4 |
| 4.23 | ERA | 4.88 |
| 44.2 | IP | 27.2 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 1.73 |
| 37 | K | 16 |
| 0 | BB | 13 |
Key Stats
1. Under 9.5 Runs
Despite the public pushing the game total up from 9 to 9.5, our model leans towards the under. The Cincinnati Reds’ offense is cold as ice, with a mere .236 BA over their last 10 games. The Chicago White Sox are not much better. They are in the bottom five in MLB in runs per game (3.82). The pitching matchup looks rough at first glance, but each pitcher has been playing better since May 1st. Wilson and Martinzes have a combined 3.74 ERA this month.
The weather is neutral, with no wind impact or precipitation, and it is 78 degrees. Both bullpens are fresh, but these factors give our model an expected run total of 8.2. These data points give us a comfortable 1.3-run cushion versus the current market line. Our edge is the market inflation, which is creating a rare opportunity to take a premium number on a likely mid-scoring game.
2. Reds Under 5.5 Runs
The public is leaning into the “White Sox are really bad” narrative, which is too much narrative, not a data mindset. Our model will take the value. The Reds project for just 4.64 runs against Bryce Wilson, who has quietly stabilized after his early-season struggles. The team’s season average of 4.64 RPG aligns with our projection.
With an actual probability of 68% for the under and only 56% implied probability at the current price, that gives us a +12% betting edge, which is a legitimate long-term ROI signal. The edge is a strongly correlated play with our full game, too.
3. Nick Martinez Over 4.5 Ks
This recommendation is not the strongest bet we can suggest from an ROI standpoint. The juice is heavy, and you are paying for a play we think will smash. Martinez should get around 5.5 innings today, generating a 4.94 strikeout prediction against a Chicago White Sox team that delivers 8.58 strikeouts a game as a team. Martinez also increased the swing-and-miss rate to 29.2% in May. Add in the final ingredient of a White Sox team ranked 27th in contact rate, and the over is served up on a platter for us. Let’s correlate this to the other bets.
Team A vs. Team B Betting Trends
| Reds | Betting Stats | White Sox |
| 2 – 8 | W/L 10 | 5 – 5 |
| 3 – 7 | ATS | 7 – 3 |
| 2 Overs, 8 Unders | O/U | 2 Overs, 7 Unders, 1 Push |
Prediction
This is a day for disciplined unders. That game total under 9.5 is our highest conviction play based on our data. The Cincinnati Reds under 5.5 add a correlated angle that isolates their scoring struggles. While the Nick Martinez K prop lacks a sharp edge, it remains viable due to its recent form. Unders are not the fun way to bet, but the smart way.
