Pittsburgh Pirates (15-33) vs. Cincinnati Reds (25-24)
Game Details: Tuesday, May 20th 6:40 Eastern
Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Bailey Falter (LHP) vs Nick Martinez (RHP)
Where to Watch: SportsNet-PIT, FanDuel Sports Network Ohio
The Pirates ride to battle as Bailey Falter takes the mound against Nick Martinez and the Cincinnati Reds. Each pitcher is not appreciated enough in limiting run production, which is the cornerstone of today’s article. Our model projects 7.29 total runs, a staggering 1.21 runs below what sportsbooks offer at 8.5. Time to dive into a 13% edge and 69% probability compared to the implied 56% (odds -125). Pirates, Reds, Preview, Prediction, and Odds start now.
Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total Runs | Money Line |
 | +1.5 (-170) | Over 8.5 (+108) | +104 |
| -1.5 (+140) | Under 8.5 (-132) | -122 |
**Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook**
Apex Tale of The Tape
| Team Stats |
|
| 3.85 | Runs/G | 4.50 |
| .230 | BA | .245 |
| .305 | OBP | .320 |
| .380 | SLG | .410 |
| .685 | OPS | .730 |
| 45 | HR | 60 |
| 25 | SB | 40 |
| 4.75 | ERA | 4.10 |
| 1.45 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 8.0 | K/9 | 8.5 |
| .980 | Fielding Percentage | .985 |
| 10 | Saves | 15 |
Projected Starting Pitchers H2H
| Bailey Falter | Player Stats | Nick Martinez |
| 2-3 | W/L | 2-4 |
| 4.02 | ERA | 3.66 |
| 47 | IP | 51.2 |
| 1.21 | WHIP | 1 |
| 34 | K | 40 |
| 18 | BB | 11 |
Key Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates
The title of this chapter is Anemic Offense and Competitive Arms. The lowly Pirates average a mere three runs per game. Over the last 10 games, they averaged only 2.4 per game and are 1-9-2 in the OU department. Yikes. If not for pitching, their record would be worse, as they only win games if they can keep opponents under three runs. 13 of their 15 wins kept the opponent to three runs or less.
Southpaw Bailey Falter enters with a 4.02 ERA and a nice 1.21 WHIP across 47 innings. He’s allowed only six runs at home this season and keeps opposing offenses at bay. While the ERA is not sexy, the under-trend is. The Pirates have gone under in 60% of their games this season.
Cincinnati Reds
Compared to the Pirates, the Reds are run-scoring superstars. They average 4.58 runs per game but share some interesting trends over their last 10 games: they are 6 – 4 straight up, 6 – 4 ATS, and only hit the over once in the previous 10 games. Both teams are doing work on the mound, not at the plate.
Nick Martinez brings a solid presence to the Red’s rotation, posting a 3.66 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 40 Ks in 51.2 innings. He’s only walked 11 batters and allowed four home runs. This stat sticks out because it proves he can keep blowup innings out of the box score, an imperative when taking an under. Like the Pirates, the Reds games have hit the under in 61% of games this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends
| Betting Stats |
|
| 6 | W/L 10 | 6-4 |
| 18-29 | ATS | 24-24 |
| 18-27-3 | O/U | 18-28-3 |
Prediction
The signs are suppressed run production, solid starting pitching from both teams, and an under-the-radar player is missing. Take the 7.293 and bet it before the market catches up. The 69% probability offers a +13% edge and, over time, gives us a positive expected value for our bankroll-friendly reminder: each team has only hit the over once in their last 10 games. The under is a high-value wager you should be confident in.
