The 3-11 New England Patriots travel to Orchard Park to take on the 11-3 and AFC East Champion Buffalo Bills. Buffalo continued its torrid pace having now won eight of their last nine games. The Bills remain two games in back of the Kansas City Chiefs for that all-important AFC number-one seed. New England is playing out the string but rookie quarterback Drake Maye has played well. The Patriots have lost four straight, but have been competitive in all but one of them.
This game is included in the main slate and may be available as a single-game contest but is for sure part of the Sunday 4:25 PM only and the late Sunday-Monday contests. Our DFS write-ups are designed to spotlight some core plays to help you build a unique DFS lineup within your single game or main slate entries. In creating a successful lineup, we research and find positional values to see where you can save money and players with projected low ownership who can pay 2x-2.5x of their listed DFS salary.
Bills vs. Patriots DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players that we are leaning on heavily in this game. These players are in a good spot to put together a solid performance in a favorable DFS matchup.
Drake Maye ($5.8k DraftKings and $6.8k Fanduel)
If you do want to stay away from the chalk play at quarterback in Josh Allen, you can pivot to Drake Maye. Even though Buffalo is ranked first in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, Maye has averaged 18.09 fantasy points across his last four games. That pace would make him the overall QB8 right now, ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold, and OROY candidate Bo Nix.
Buffalo was just lit up by Jared Goff for 44.06 fantasy points and you get the rushing upside with Maye. Across those same four games, Maye has 17 rushing attempts for 126 yards and a score. With New England, a double-digit underdog with a projected negative game script, Maye gives you a nice DFS option at quarterback.
Khalil Shakir ($5.9k DraftKings and $6.6k Fanduel)
We have talked about in prior Buffalo Bill’s DFS articles that Khalil Shakir is the WR1 on this team. In his last eight games, Shakir is averaging 8 targets, has 51 receptions, and two scores. Shakir’s seven targets and 20.5% targets were tied with Dalton Kincaid last versus Detroit. Each week Shakir consistently ranks high in snap rate and rostering also gives us a nice stacking option with Allen in tournament builds.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side of things, here are a few of the players we recommend sitting in this one.
Ray Davis ($4.7k DraftKings and $5.2k Fanduel)
Ray Davis always represents a cheap DFS play to gain exposure to the Buffalo offense, but last week Ty Johnson entered the Bill’s backfield situation. Davis had 9.9 fantasy points and played just 26% of snaps. That did include a receiving touchdown that accounted for 61% of his output. The problem now is Ty Johnson had a 30% snap share and himself scored a season-high 17.8 fantasy points. If we are going to roster a DFS punt play, we prefer Johnson, who now has 30.3 fantasy points in the last two games.
Hunter Henry ($4.1k DraftKings and $5k Fanduel)
Buffalo’s overall pass defense may rank just 25th but they can defend the tight end. The Bills defense ranks fourth in fantasy points allowed to the position and if you want to invest in the Patriots passing game, it’s best to roster Maye. Hunter Henry does see his fair share of passing targets and is the TE11, but we do not like the match-up this week. Sam LaPorta scored 17.6 points last week, but in the four prior games, Buffalo held the tight end position to 13 catches. They have not allowed a score to the position since week 8. Dalton Kincaid would be the tight end to roster in this match-up.
Total Apex Lock of the Game
Josh Allen ($8.7k DraftKings and $9.4k Fanduel)
Another single-game DFS write and another Josh Allen DFS lock play to anchor our DFS build. Josh Allen is the highest-priced quarterback on the FanDuel main slate and no doubt represents this week’s quarterback chalk play. In rostering Allen, we must find value elsewhere but his ceiling is worth the DFS salary. He followed up his week 15 54.88 fantasy point with a 42.28 output last week versus Detroit.
Allen has now moved up to the fantasy overall QB2 and gets the New England defense ranked 21st versus the pass and is middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to the quarterback. It is not rocket science, spend up for Allen and get unique elsewhere in week 16.
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Amari Cooper ($5.2k DraftKings and $5.6k Fanduel)
We are down on Amari Cooper and for his stature as a supposed WR1 for the Bills, he certainly is not priced as such. It is a crap shoot as the which Bills wideout to roster in DFS. Cooper was fourth among the Buffalo wide receivers in snap count versus the Lions and he had a zero output in a game that featured 90 total points.
With Keon Coleman returning from injury, Cooper was relegated to the fifth option in the passing game. We simply can not trust Cooper making him a DFS fade in week 16. I will play devil’s advocate here and finish with this thought. A great time to roster players in DFS is after they disappointed the masses, Amari Cooper fits that bill!
Conclusion
These recommendations are designed to give you players we feel will be low-owned and good value and help you create a unique DFS build. We want a DFS lineup that is different from the masses and most likely made with an optimizer. Each week in DFS, your pay line for FanDuel is approximately 125 points, which equates to 2x per player. For example, a player with a $4500 salary needs 9 points. DraftKings pay line is approximately 134 points, which is 2.5x per player. So, for a $4500 salary, that player would need 9.9 points.
Also, consider New England’s Rhamondre Stevenson and for Buffalo Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid. If you pivot off Josh Allen, you will want exposure to him via weapons in the passing game.
