The Thunder lead this series 3 – 2 and head to Denver to try and punch a ticket into the Western Conference Finals. Sportsbooks show no love for the Nuggets as they come out at home as 4.5 dogs. Former MVP Nikola Jokic finally awoke after being contained well by the Thunder in the first four games. The rotations are tight, minutes set, and we can take down some GPPs by using values, pivots, and fade players that the public may get cute with. Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Activate!
Lock of the Game
Nikola Jokic
DK Salary: $13,800 | Flex Ownership: 45% – 55% | Captain Ownership: 25% – 35%
FD Salary: $17,200 | Flex Ownership: 55% – 65% | Captain Ownership: 18% – 28%
Yes, I know: this lock is a no-brainer, duh, type of play, but people were getting away from Joker as recently as Game 4, as his ownership was only 42% on a two-game slate. There is no way to fade this man tonight (barring injury). He looks to get stronger as pressure builds, and he is averaging 62.1 DK points, including a monster 77.25 line from Game 5, where he played the entire second half against the Thunder.
What’s even sicker? He turned into vintage Ray Allen from 3, knocking down 5-of-7 from deep. The Thunder must channel their defensive prowess from games 1 – 4 to keep him from hitting a ceiling outcome and dropping 44 real points. It is hard to imagine a world where Jokic is not in the optimal lineup. If the Nuggets can keep this game close-or even win, you simply cannot win without him.
Start ‘Em
Jalen Williams
DK Salary: $9,200 | Flex Ownership: 30% – 40% | Captain Ownership: 5% – 15%
FD Salary: $9,600 | Flex Ownership: 40% – 50% | Captain Ownership: 6% – 16%
Jalen Williams is an easy click, thanks to a consistent floor and a reasonable salary for Showdown. Over the last five games, he’s averaging 37.1 DK points, with his lowest-scoring game of 28.75. That outlier was due to a rare, bad shooting night (.128 FG%). Throw that one out. What makes him elite is his usage stability.
He’s hit double-digit field goal attempts in all five games while being a secondary playmaker with 5.1 assists per game. Want a side of rebounds? Sure, here’s 5.3 per game over the series for you. He offers safety plus ceiling outcome probability. On March 9th against the Nuggets, he dropped 55 DK points. Use him as a core piece and move on to the next roster spot.
Cason Wallace
Denver Nuggets
DK Salary: $3,000 | Flex Ownership: 25% – 35% | Captain Ownership: 1% – 6%
FD Salary: $1,800 | Flex Ownership: 12% – 22% | Captain Ownership: 1% – 4%
Introducing your value play of the day: Cason Wallace. He’s playing 18 – 23 minutes in competitive games and hit 5x value on his salary twice this series, with 13+ in two others. What’s fun about this is his steals production. He’s had two in three games and one in the other two for eight in this series. He does not have to rely on a hot shooting night to hit value. He’s due for positive regression, as he’s only shot 33% from downtown. If he adds the deep ball with the peripherals, it will SHOOT you up the leaderboard. Pun intended.
Sit ‘Em
Michael Porter Jr.
DK Salary: $6,200 | Flex Ownership: 7% – 17% | Captain Ownership: 1% – 4%
FD Salary: $4,200 | Flex Ownership: 15% – 25% | Captain Ownership: 2% – 6%
Porter Jr. has lost all sense of self and rhythm in this series. Over his last two games, he’s gone 1-for-7 in back-to-back outings, with a 14.3 field goal percentage. It doesn’t help that he posted 13.5 and 15.75 DK points despite playing more than 29 minutes each game. Ew. His shot is off, and he has not scored more than eight points in four of five games. He did have a spike game, so I’m not fading him completely, but I will be lower on the field until he gets his fantasy production back.
Lu Dort
DK Salary: $4,400 | Flex Ownership: 20% – 30% | Captain Ownership: 1% – 6%
FD Salary: $2,600 | Flex Ownership: 15% – 25% | Captain Ownership: 0% – 3%
Dort is the man on defense for the Thunder, but his fantasy upside leaves much to be desired. He’s averaging 16.6 DK points per game over the series with wild inconsistency. He tends to drop dud games even with a high minute count. He is shooting under 30% from three and has had one or fewer assists in four games. He is a low-floor, low-ceiling play on both sites. His bust rate is too high for me to jam into most lineups.
Fade of the Game
Bench Players
Isaiah Joe, Julian Strawther, Aaron Wiggins
Isaiah Joe, Julian Strawther, and Aaron Wiggins’ prices and projected minutes can be tempting. I am fading these players mainly because I want a unique combination of top-tier players without fodder. Many SIM tools or lineup optimizers will jam in these three players as the sixth player in a lineup, but a path to a ceiling game with them is limited.
Over the playoffs, I’ve seen a growing trend of DFS lineups that break the cash line because their sixth player of this caliber helps them min cash but does not get them to the top. I am fading these players to build around each team’s starters and bench players with upside like Alex Caruso or Russell Westbrook.
