The Western Conference’s third-seed Denver Nuggets host the 13th-seed San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday at 8:00 p.m. in Ball Arena. The injury report is as complete as Nikola Jokic’s stat sheet last night (61 points, triple-double) after an OT loss by 1 to the Timberwolves. Here’s the list of game-time decisions for the Nuggets: Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. The Spurs roll on without Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanymama, De’Aaron Fox, and Riley Minix. Let’s break down the Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em.
Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs DFS Start ‘Em
Here are a few of the players that we are leaning on heavily in this game. These players are in a good spot to put together a solid performance and have a favorable matchup.
Christian Braun (DK: $7,400, FD: $11,000)
The Spurs are the 29th-ranked team against Shooting Guards. Over the last seven games, they give up 48.96 Fanduel points on average to that position. Braun is a multi-positional wing who is a jack of all trades but a master of none. He sprinkles in ceiling games and can hit 45+. In the last three games, he’s scored 46, 25.5, and 47.5 (FD: 45.4, 25.8, & 46). With so many other players in question, we can be confident that Braun will pick up the slack.
Stephon Castle (DK: $7,800, FD: $13,000)
Castle must finish strong to maintain his hold on the Rookie of the Year Award. At -1200 on FD, it would take a complete meltdown to lose it. The Future Awards can be loosey-goosey this time of year with injuries and games missed. The Spurs should give him around 30 minutes. With a solid 1.03 fantasy points per minute this year, he’s a strong candidate to be over the field with. In his last three games, he has 34, 14.3, and 39.9 DK points (FD: 30.6, 11.6, and 39.4 ). There is also a ceiling of over 50 points, which he hit against Cleveland and Philadelphia in March.
Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs DFS Sit ‘Em
On the flip side, here are a few of the players we are sitting in this one.
De’Andre Jordan (DK: $5,000, FD: $8,000)
Jordan saw a huge minute bump, while Jokic spent a little over a week in the infirmary. Since Jokic’s return, Jordan has returned back to more time on the bench. In last night’s overtime game, he played only five minutes. In the previous three games, he’s scored 5, 17.8, and 2.3 DK points (FD: 3.9, 19.7, and 1.7). He does not have the expected minutes for a ceiling outcome.
Bismack Biyombo (DK:$2,400 , FD: $6,500)
Like Jordan, most of Biyombo’s upside comes from opportunity via injury at the center position. Bassey is returning, and Sandro Mamukelashvili will split the minutes, too. There are too many mouths to feed to hit upside. He will not have enough opportunity to optimize a lineup at .87 fantasy points per minute and 14 – 18 minutes.
Total Apex Lock of the Game
Nikola Jokic (DK: $13,200, FD: $18,500)
The Joker is coming off an NBA 2K video game stat line with a ridiculous 98 DK point night. He is a necessary evil in a showdown unless he gets injured early in the game. Do not get cute and fade him. He is in 100% of my lineups.
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Sandro Mamukelashvili (DK: $3,200, FD $8,000)
Mamukelashvili did a fine job holding down the five spot with Spurs’ injuries in the frontcourt. He hit a few ceiling games while averaging under 20 minutes a game. Charles Bassey returns tonight. With Biyombo still with the team, avoiding the Spurs’ centers altogether is practical. I’m projecting all three centers to split the estimated 55 minutes tonight. These players do not have the upside to win a GPP, with only an average of 18.3 minutes per player.
Conclusion
Our Model projects this game’s outcome as Nuggets 122 and Spurs 112 based on trends over the last three games. I’ll be playing on DK and FD for my lineups: 100% Joker, 80% Castle, and Braun. I will fade all centers not named Jokic because there are no 150-max tournaments, and their floor is too risky in 20-max. Let’s fill our lineup with ceiling probability and take down some tournaments.
