Nico Collins 2025 NFL Dynasty Outlook

Nico Collins is no doubt a superstar talent at wide receiver (WR). He was drafted by the Houston Texans in 2021 in the third round out of the University of Michigan, and has stayed on the team through his rookie contract. On May 28, 2024, the Texans rewarded Collins with a three-year extension for a total of $72.75 million. His contract numbers in 2024 and 2025 are fully guaranteed.

Now entering his fifth year in the league, Collins is expected to be at the top of the wide receiver rankings. His first two seasons in the league were decent but uninspiring. However, when the Houston Texans drafted CJ Stroud in 2023, everything changed. Collins quickly became Stroud’s most trusted target, and it improved not just Collins’ fantasy potential, but most of the team around them as well. In total, Collins has accumulated 218 receptions for 3,230 yards and 18 touchdowns in his four-year career.

That did not change in 2024 by rate, with Nico Collins ranking near the top of the WR points average most of the year. An injury derailed him midseason, though, and he never fully bounced back.

Nevertheless, he remained a top-five WR by point average for the season. Can he be drafted in that tier of players this year, given the injury in 2024 and the state of the Texans’ offense? What does his dynasty potential look like moving forward, both in the short term and in the long term?

Nico Collins 2024 Stats and Fantasy Production

Nico Collins played in 12 games for the Texans in 2024, amassing 68 catches on 99 targets. He accumulated 1,006 yards on those receptions, good for a 14.8 yards per catch average. Collins also caught seven touchdowns, one shy of his career record. He did not collect any rushing or passing stats in 2024.

These stats amounted to a successful fantasy season for Nico Collins. In PPR leagues on Fantasy Pros, he averaged 17.6 points per game, good for seventh among all WR. He also had 210.6 total points, good for 23rd among all WR. For leagues with standard scoring, he accumulated 142.6 points overall, averaging 11.9 per game, which placed him 20th and fourth among WR, respectively.

When Nico Collins was in the game, he was one of the main focuses of the passing game. Even with injuries to other wide receivers, Collins was able to establish himself as a contributor, maintaining his high target and reception rates. He sustained a hamstring injury in Week 5 against the Buffalo Bills. This led to a five-week stint on the injured reserve, but he returned in Week 11 against the Dallas Cowboys and played the remainder of the season.

Nico Collins 2025 Fantasy Outlook

Nico Collins should be entering 2025 healthy, after an offseason to fully heal his injured hamstring. Last season, Nico was hampered by his aforementioned injury, as well as injuries to the wide receivers around him and a decline in play by quarterback CJ Stroud. Even with these barriers, he still put up strong weekly average points for fantasy owners. There is nothing to indicate that he would not continue this season, regardless of the players around him.

According to Fantasy Pros, Nico Collins is projected at the ninth overall pick and the fifth wide receiver off the board in standard scoring leagues. In full PPR, he is tenth overall and seventh among wide receivers. In half PPR, those numbers shift to ninth overall and sixth among wide receivers. Thus, he is a top ten pick in all leagues, regardless of scoring.

Despite losing a weapon in Stefon Diggs in the offseason, and CJ Stroud’s sophomore slump, Nico Collins is still projected to have a strong season. Given he stays healthy, I project Collins to gather around 1,300 yards, 75 receptions, and eight touchdowns, and he is worth the early round two draft projections in all leagues. These are similar to the numbers he posted in 2023 when he was fully healthy, with Tank Dell as the WR2 on the team, as he will be again this year. He is a favorite target for CJ Stroud, and that will continue to play a factor for the fantasy outlook.

Nico Collins Dynasty Outlook

Collins is just 26 years old and has several prime years left in front of him. His injury history is a bit concerning, having only played out two full seasons in his career, but it is nowhere near enough to panic for. He is worth acquiring and owning anywhere you can get him. The star wide-out remains a Top 10 WR in all scoring leagues and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Barring a significant injury, Collins will continue to improve or match his recent career numbers, indicating no reason to project a decline.

The only future uncertainty is where Nico Collins will be playing long-term. His contract is no longer guaranteed at the end of the 2025 season. Collins is a great receiver no matter where he plays, but part of his value is his chemistry and trust built with his QB, Stroud. If, for some reason, he does not stay with the Texans beyond 2025 or 2026, that could mean his fantasy expectations could take a small hit.

Dynasty owners should bear that in mind when attempting to acquire him. He should still post strong numbers, but he may not see the volume of targets he has under Stroud.

It is expected that the Texans will try to extend Collins again as they did in 2024, and it makes sense. He is Stroud’s favorite player, and the Texans should be in the running to win their division year in and year out. With a top defense that is Super Bowl caliber, maintaining the strongest offensive weapon on the team gives the Texans a chance every year to compete for a spot in the Super Bowl.

Final Thoughts

At age 26, Nico Collins is not the youngest WR on the board, but he has plenty of prime years left with Houston. Assuming his hamstring injury does not nag over the years, he will continue to put up strong numbers. Staying a Texan is a key priority for both sides, which should indicate that something will eventually get done.

Even with injuries and mediocre offensive play last season, Collins stood out when he was on the field. With the team ready to prove itself after last year’s bumpy ride, he should benefit from the prove-it mentality. The Texans receiver should easily be in the top 10 for 2025, likely top five, and continue those placements through at least his age 30 season, 2029. Dynasty owners should feel comfortable with him as their WR1.