DFS week 13 is upon us, we were fair last week in our recommendations and need to be better, so let’s get right to our Main Slate preview. Each week we spotlight some core plays to help you build your DFS lineup on Fanduel and DraftKings. In creating a successful lineup, we research and find positional values to see where you can save money and players with projected low ownership who can pay 2x-2.5x of their listed DFS salary.
You bank on getting a minimum of 20 points from the quarterback position. You can not miss this position. Expect to pay up at the tight-end position. You can save at other spots. A successful strategy can be the QB-TE stack. These core plays will give you a nucleus for your DFS build.
Perhaps most importantly, you don’t need me to tell you to use Jalen Hurts or Saquan Barkley in your week 13 DFS builds. These recommendations are designed to give you players we feel will be low-owned and good value and help you create a unique DFS build. We want a DFS lineup different from the masses and most likely made with an optimizer. Look for single or smaller slates to build your DFS bankroll. Expecting to hit the Sunday million jackpot regularly is not statistically sound.
DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players we are heavily leaning on in this game. These players are in a good spot to have a solid performance and a favorable DFS matchup.
Justin Herbert (5.6k DraftKings and $7.9k Fanduel)
At quarterback this week, we are going to the top of the DFS mid-tier in Justin Herbert. In his last five games, Herbert is averaging 21.06 fanduel fantasy points, with seven passing touchdowns. That per-game scoring clip would put him as the current QB4, above Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels. A big key in that is the rushing production, across the same time frame Herbert has 168 yards and two touchdowns. The Falcon’s defense is ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed to the position and 26th versus the pass. There is also a great chance Herbert’s ownership is depressed with all the other big names on the main slate.
Bucky Irving ($5.8k DraftKings and $7.2k Fanduel)
We found another very good mid-tier option at running back for our week 13 DFS build. Irving gets a fantastic matchup versus the Panther’s defense, ranked last in rush defense, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Irving is averaging 20.2 points per game across his last two games with 239 total yards, nine receptions, and two touchdowns. He is also now the overall PPR RB21 and is firmly in the RB2 discussion. Irving’s price point and current production pace make him a strong bet to pay off his DFS salary.
Michael Pittman ($5.2k DraftKings and $6.6k Fanduel)
We are going to save some salary this week and pay down at wide receiver. With Josh Downs a DNP at practice to start the week, Pitmmna has the potential to match last week’s nine targets and 6-96 stat line. Pittman faces a New England defense that ranks 27th in fantasy points allowed to wideouts and is bottom six in points allowed to perimeter wideouts. Since Anthony Richardson was reinserted as the starter, Pittman has a 24.1% target share and 29.4% air yard share. The one concern is if Christian Gonzalez shadows him, but he only did that to Tyrekk Hill last week in approximately half the snaps.
DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side of things, here are a few of the players we recommend sitting in this one.
Brock Purdy ($6.2k DraftKings and $8.1k Fanduel)
There are two reasons we are not recommending Brock Purdy in DFS this week; the first is the potential winter storm forecasted for Buffalo on Sunday Night. The second is the match-up with the Buffalo defense that ranks ninth in fantasy points allowed to the position. Purdy missed week 12 with his shoulder injury, which is also a concern for us. According to reports, he is throwing has been very limited as well.
Gus Edwards ($4.3k DraftKings and $5.9k Fanduel)
A lot of people will be tempted to insert Gus Edwards into their DFS builds in the absence of J.K. Dobbins, but he is a no-go for us. Edwards did play on 75% of the rushing plays but he only in for 20% of pass plays and a third of red zone plays. Edwards in our opinion offers no upside and the Falcon’s defense ranks ninth in fantasy points allowed to running backs. A better option we feel would be to pay down to Kimani Vidal with his potential involvement in the passing game.
Amari Cooper ($5.2k DraftKings and $6.1k Fanduel)
You would never expect a player of Amari Cooper’s caliber to be a recommended sit but he is certainly priced as one. Cooper’s last three games he has a combined 7 catches for 125 yards and a score. In the last two games, his route rate is below 55% and his target share is under 7%. The matchup is very difficult as the 49er’s defense is top 10 in receiving yards allowed, and yards allowed to perimeter wideouts.
Total Apex Stud/Lock of the Week
Jalen Hurts ($7.7k DraftKings and $9.2k Fanduel)
We are going full chalk for our DFS stud of the week. If you are going to pay up at quarterback then go all the way up to Jalen Hurts. Hurts is the highest-priced quarterback in DFS this week, but for good reason: he is the overall fantasy QB2 and gets the Ravens 31st ranked pass defense. In addition, Baltimore also ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position.
Hurts provides a high floor with his rushing prowess, as evidenced by his nine scores in the last five games. On top of all that, the Eagles-Ravens tilt has the highest implied game total at 50.5 and just a three-point spread. Therefore this game is expected to be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of points scored.
Total Apex Dud/Fade of the Week
Kirk Cousins ($6k DraftKings and $6.9k Fanduel)
We are fading Kirk Cousins in what lines up to be a difficult matchup versus the Chargers’ defense that is top 10 in yards per attempt allowed, passer rating, and quarterback pressure rate. Cousins is just the overall fantasy QB18 and much of that came in two starts versus Tampa Bay, where he had 8 of his 17 touchdown passes. If you do use him in your DFS builds just beware of the potential outcome.
Stack of the Week
Recommended Stacks: Jalen Hurts-AJ Brown/ Chris Stroud-Nico Collins/ Baker Mayfield-Cade Otton
Additional Starts: Russell Wilson, Alvin Kamara, Chubba Hubbard, George Pickens, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Will Dissly
Additional Sits: Drake Maye, Will Levis, Denver running backs, and Mark Andrews
Conclusion
Each week in DFS, your pay line for FanDuel is approximately 125 points, which equates to 2x per player. For example, a player with a $4500 salary needs 9 points. DraftKings pay line is approximately 134 points, which is 2.5x per player. So, for a $4500 salary, that player would need 9.9 points. Remember that our sit recommendations are based on a DFS perspective to help provide you with a unique lineup build, relative to the masses. We want to offer you player options that are projected for low ownership.
