It is week 12 and we are in the stretch run of the fantasy season, so let’s get right to our DFS Full Slate preview. Each week we spotlight some core plays to help you build your DFS lineup on Fanduel and DraftKings. In creating a successful lineup, we research and find positional values to see where you can save money and players with projected low ownership who can pay 2x-2.5x of their listed DFS salary.
You bank on getting a minimum of 20 points from the quarterback position. You can not miss this position. Expect to pay up at the tight-end position. You can save at other spots. A successful strategy can be the QB-TE stack. These core plays will give you a nucleus for your DFS build.
Perhaps most importantly, you don’t need me to tell you to use Jayden Daniels or Saquan Barkley in your week 12 DFS builds. These recommendations are designed to give you players we feel will be low-owned, good value, and help you create a unique DFS build. We want a DFS lineup different from the masses and most likely made with an optimizer. Look for single or smaller slates to build your DFS bankroll. Expecting to hit the Sunday million jackpot regularly is not statistically sound.
DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players we heavily lean on in this game. These players are in a good spot to have a solid performance and a favorable DFS matchup.
Bo Nix ($6.3k DraftKings and $8k Fanduel)
Bo Nix was our DFS quarterback recommendation last week and he rewarded us with four touchdowns and 31.78 fantasy points. If we asked you which quarterback since week five, is top 20 in yards per attempt, top 7 in passer rating, and QB5 would you know it was Bo Nix? The DFS salary discount is fading on Nix, as his price this week jumped $600 but he is still just outside the mid-tier-priced quarterbacks.
He gets a very good matchup versus the Raiders who rank 25th in fantasy points allowed to position. We expect more of the same for Nix, as Las Vegas surrendered 288 yards and three touchdowns to Tua Tagovailoa in week 11.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($6k DraftKings and $7k Fanduel)
We are saving some salary here and paying down for Tracy in the mid-tier. The Giants are inserting Tommy DeVito as their new starting quarterback, so we get the running game angle and the potential use as check down. Tracy is just overall RB33 but in his last three games, he is averaging 19.33 touches, 107.66 all-purpose yards, and has two touchdowns. Tracy is at a stellar 5.1 yards per carry and will face a Tampa defense ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Josh Downs ($6.2k DraftKings and $6.9k Fanduel)
At wide receiver, we are going to a mid-tier option in Josh Downs. Downs comes in as the PPR overall WR16 and he is pushing for WR1 status. Downs has produced some serious numbers in his last four games with 8.25 targets per game, 22 catches, 14.95 points per game, and 2 touchdowns. That per-game average would be Drake London and Garrett Wilson.
We will be the first to admit that we have faded Anthony Richardson all season, but if he plays like last week then we have something with Downs. With a competent Richardson under center in week 11, Downs went for 16.8 yards per catch and a touchdown. On top of all that, the Lion’s defense ranks 27th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and overall pass defense.
DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side, here are a few players we recommend sitting in this one.
Caleb Williams ($5.1k DraftKings and $7k Fanduel)
We were down last week on Caleb Williams, but he did produce 16.24 fantasy points, however, seven of those came from his rushing output. In his prior three starts, Williams produced single-digit fantasy points, averaging just 8.47 points per game. Minnesota is ranked 10th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and has allowed just three QB1 finishes this season. With better mid-tier quarterback options, Caleb Williams is a DFS sit for us in week 12.
Tony Pollard ($5.8k DraftKings and $6.5k Fanduel)
Tony Pollard has tailed off some in his past two games, averaging only 6.1 fantasy points per game with zero touchdowns. Pollard will match up in week 12 with the Texan’s defense, which is sixth in points allowed to running backs and features the league’s ninth-best rush defense. Houston is among the best this year versus running backs having allowed just six top-24 finishes. Pollard does have the passing game usage to boost his numbers but he remains a sit for us in DFS.
Jakobi Meyers ($5.1k DraftKings and $6.4k Fanduel)
Meyers has produced double-digit scoring in three of his last four starts but this week gets an extremely difficult matchup. Denver is ranked first in points allowed to wideouts, seventh against the pass, and fourth in total defense. We know Meyers is the WR1 in Las Vegas and will get the targets, however, Denver is among the league’s best, having allowed just five top-24 finishes to wide receivers. In addition, this game has the slate’s second-lowest implied game total at 41. We are out in Jakobi Meyers in week 12.
Total Apex Lock of the Day
Patrick Mahomes ($6.8k DraftKings and $8.4k Fanduel)
We like Mahomes this week for our DFS lock. He has worked himself back into the QB1 conversation, which is crazy even to think in those terms. Mahomes checks in as the overall QB13, however, in the last four games, he has averaged 19.53 points per game. That production would currently rank as the overall QB6 right now. This week Mahomes gets the Carolina defense 26th in fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position and 24th against the pass. We hope the masses will use Hurts, Daniels, or Goff to keep Mahomes DFS ownership down.
Total Apex Dud of the Day
Sam Darnold ($5.9k DraftKings and $7.1k Fanduel)
We are fading Darnold this week in a tough matchup with Bears pass defense. Chicago is one of four teams that has allowed only two QB1 performances this season. The Bears rank first in fantasy points allowed to the position and ninth against the pass. Overall Darnold is QB12 in fantasy but he has just the 15th-highest DFS salary among quarterbacks on the week 12 slate. Darnold has done well of late with two 20-point games in his last three outings, but we are tempering expectations versus a stout Bears pass defense and a game with a 39.5 implied game total.
Stack of the Week
Recommended Stacks: Patrick Mahomes-Xavier Worthy/ Jared Goff-Amon-Ra St. Brown/ Jayden Daniels-Terry McLaurin
Additional Starts: Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Brian Robinson, Kareem Hunt, Puka Nacua/Cooper Kupp, Malik Nabers, Will Dissly
Additional Sits: Will Levis, Bryce Young, D’Andre Swift, Rico Dowdle, Tank Dell, Jordan Addison, Tucker Kraft
Conclusion
Each week in DFS, your pay line for FanDuel is approximately 125 points, which equates to 2x per player. For example, a player with a $4500 salary needs 9 points. DraftKings pay line is approximately 134 points, which is 2.5x per player. So, for a $4500 salary, that player would need 9.9 points. Remember that our sit recommendations are based on a DFS perspective to help provide you with a unique lineup build, relative to the masses. We want to offer you player options that are projected for low ownership.
