Josh Allen did what Josh Allen does, putting up big numbers to unseat the Jaguars at home with Bills getting the win. I expected Jacksonville to win that game, but Allen once again showed his ability to take over a matchup by himself. Expecting him to repeat that level of solo dominance against Denver feels unlikely. Buffalo will need others to step up.
Denver enters this game coming off a bye, which always adds uncertainty. Sean Payton with extra preparation time is dangerous, and this matchup projects as a tighter, more strategic DFS slate than people may expect. With ownership likely condensing around quarterbacks, lineup construction will decide this Showdown.
Allen’s Supporting Cast Will Need to Step Up This Week
DFS Starts
Josh Allen — QB, Bills
DK: $12,000 | FD: $17,500
Allen is the highest-floor and highest-ceiling player on the slate. He’s good for at least two total touchdowns, and his rushing usage creates DFS insulation even if Denver limits explosive plays. The Broncos will likely scheme to take away his legs near the goal line, but Allen still touches the ball on nearly every snap.
DFS role:
• Top cash Captain
• Safe flex in all builds
Bo Nix — QB, Broncos
DK: $10,800 | FD: $15,000
Nix faces pressure against a Bills team with playoff experience, but his recent production and dual-threat ability make him a strong DFS play. He went for over 350 total yards with a passing and rushing score against Jacksonville in Week 16. Coming off a bye, Nix has a realistic path to two touchdowns.
DFS role:
• Strong flex
• Contrarian Captain in GPPs
RJ Harvey — RB, Broncos
DK: $9,600 | FD: $13,500
Harvey ended the season on a high note and is now a major factor in both the run and pass game. His versatility is extremely valuable in single-game DFS formats. If Denver tries to shorten the game and keep Allen off the field, Harvey’s usage could spike.
DFS role:
• High-floor flex
• Correlates well with Nix builds
Khalil Shakir — WR, Bills
DK: $8,200 | FD: $12,000
Shakir caught 12 passes last week and continues to establish himself as Allen’s most reliable chain-mover. He can get loose against Denver’s secondary and has red-zone upside. At his price, he’s one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the slate.
DFS role:
• Core flex
• Viable GPP Captain
Courtland Sutton — WR, Broncos
DK: $8,800 | FD: $13,000
Sutton saw 10 targets in Denver’s last competitive game. If that volume holds, he’s set up for a big performance. He has the size and contested-catch ability to punish Buffalo if defensive attention shifts elsewhere.
DFS role:
• Touchdown-driven ceiling
• Strong tournament flex
Flex & Value Tier
Dalton Kincaid or Dawson Knox — TE, Bills
Kincaid: DK $6,400 | FD $9,500
Knox: DK $5,200 | FD $8,500
Flip a coin. One of these tight ends is due for an uptick in usage, and one could easily sneak into the end zone. Denver’s commitment to contain Allen’s rushing lanes could open the middle of the field.
DFS note:
• Kincaid offers a reception floor
• Knox provides cheaper TD leverage
NFL DFS FANDUEL PICKS: DIVISIONAL ROUND (FANTASY FOOTBALL) – Aaron Larson via Fantasy Footballers
James Cook — RB, Bills
DK: $11,200 | FD: $14,500
Cook has big-play potential, but Allen stealing red-zone touchdowns creates volatility. That volatility makes Cook more appealing in tournaments than cash games. One long run can flip the slate instantly.
DFS role:
• GPP flex or Captain
• Best used without Allen at Captain
DFS Construction: Cash vs. GPP
CASH GAME CONSTRUCTION
Priority: Floor, Usage, Raw Points
Captain: Josh Allen
Cash Core:
• Josh Allen (Captain)
• Bo Nix
• Khalil Shakir
• RJ Harvey
• Dalton Kincaid
Why it works:
• Both quarterbacks maximize raw points
• High-percentage targets reduce variance
• Minimal reliance on long touchdowns
Cash philosophy: Don’t get cute. Allen’s median outcome keeps you alive.
GPP CONSTRUCTION
Priority: Ceiling, Correlation, Ownership Leverage
Top GPP Captains:
• Bo Nix
• Khalil Shakir
• James Cook
Broncos-Lean GPP Build
• Captain: Bo Nix
• Flex: Courtland Sutton
• Flex: RJ Harvey
• Flex: Josh Allen
• Value play
Script: Denver controls the tempo or keeps it close.
Bills Skill-Player GPP Build
• Captain: Shakir or Cook
• Flex: Josh Allen
• Flex: Kincaid or Knox
• Bring-back: Sutton or Harvey
Script: Buffalo scores through skill players, not Allen rushing.
GPP mindset: Don’t ask who scores the most points. Ask what outcome blocks the field’s most popular builds.
Final Take
This Divisional Round Showdown slate is tighter than last week’s Bills matchup. Josh Allen still headlines the slate, but Denver’s preparation and balance create real DFS leverage opportunities. Cash games should lean into Allen’s floor, while GPPs should embrace volatility through skill players and alternative game scripts.
