Last season was brutal for the San Francisco 49ers, and that’s putting it politely. After three straight NFC Championship appearances and a Super Bowl run, watching this franchise crumble to 6-11 felt like witnessing a five-star restaurant serve microwaved leftovers. But here’s where things get interesting: Vegas has its 2025 win total at just 10.5, and honestly, that might be the most generous gift oddsmakers have handed out.
What Went Wrong in 2024 For the San Francisco 49ers?
The San Francisco 49ers didn’t just have a bad season; they had a catastrophically unlucky one. According to injury data, no team lost more adjusted games to injury than San Francisco, clocking in at a staggering 141.2 adjusted games lost. To put that in perspective, they outpaced the second-most-injured team by roughly the same margin that separates second place from eighth. That’s not bad luck; that’s biblical plague territory.
Christian McCaffrey, the backbone of their offense, battled injuries all season. Trent Williams, their Pro Bowl left tackle, missed significant time. Brandon Aiyuk had his own health issues. When your three most important non-quarterback players are playing hurt or watching from the sidelines, even the best coaching can only do so much. Despite this injury apocalypse, Kyle Shanahan somehow kept this team competitive while essentially coaching with one hand tied behind his back.
Health Is the Ultimate Game-Changer
Let’s start with the obvious: regression to the mean exists for a reason. The 49ers went from losing just 14.1 adjusted games to injury in 2023 to losing 141.2 in 2024. Unless they’ve been cursed by some angry football deity, expecting another injury-devastated season borders on mathematical impossibility.
Reports out of Santa Clara suggest Christian McCaffrey is healthy and ready to return to his elite form. When healthy, McCaffrey isn’t just a running back; he’s a cheat code that opens up Shanahan’s entire playbook. His return alone should be worth at least two additional wins.
The Schedule: A Gift-Wrapped Opportunity
Here’s where things get really interesting. The San Francisco 49ers face what’s projected to be the easiest schedule in the NFL, with a .415 strength of schedule. They’re playing just four games against 2024 playoff teams, and their unique matchups outside the NFC West include the struggling Giants, the rebuilding Browns, and the inconsistent Bears. When you’re coming off a disappointing season, facing a soft schedule is exactly what the doctor ordered. The 49ers should feast on weaker competition while getting their confidence back.
Why the Under Bettors Are Dead Wrong
As of early betting reports, an overwhelming bets were placed on the under 10.5 wins. This level of public certainty usually signals a massive overreaction to recent performance. The betting public has a notoriously short memory and tends to overweigh last season’s results.
Remember, this is essentially the same core team that reached three straight NFC Championships. Brock Purdy is entering his third season as a starter with a new contract and renewed confidence. The offensive line should be healthier. The defense, while losing some pieces, added pass rusher Bryce Huff and brought back defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who knows this system inside and out.
Final Thoughts: Bet the Over
The 10.5 win total for the San Francisco 49ers is one of the best betting values. Banking on health returning and an easy schedule, this is a perfect bounce-back opportunity. When this team is healthy, they’re championship contenders. Sometimes the best bets are the most obvious ones staring you right in the face. The San Francisco 49ers going over 10.5 wins in 2025 is the right bet to make.
