Well, well, well. Look who’s crawling back from the basement of professional football with delusions of grandeur. The New England Patriots, fresh off a spectacular 4-13 campaign that got Jerod Mayo fired faster than you can say “Do Your Job,” are somehow expected to more than double their win total in 2025. Vegas has set the Patriots’ over/under at 8.5 wins, which feels like the kind of optimism usually reserved for lottery tickets and blind dates. But before you start laughing at the absurdity, let’s dig into why this might not be as ridiculous as it sounds: though it probably still is.
The Patriots’ 2024 Nightmare Season
Let’s be brutally honest about where this franchise stands. The Patriots didn’t just have a bad season in 2024: they had the kind of season that makes you question everything you thought you knew about football. Four wins. Four! That’s fewer victories than most high school teams manage in a season.
The numbers tell a story uglier than a Tom Brady retirement speech. New England went 3-9 in the AFC and managed a pathetic 2-4 record in their own division. They were 3-6 in one-possession games and an even more embarrassing 1-4 in games decided by a field goal or less. No wonder Jerod Mayo was fired as head coach after one year.
The Patriots’ Talent Evaluation
The real question mark is second-year quarterback Drake Maye. Remember him? The guy who was supposed to be the franchise’s savior after being drafted fourth overall? Well, here’s something that might surprise you: Maye actually showed some promise down the stretch. With a competent new coach in Mike Vrabel, Maye should improve.
The draft brought some hope with LSU’s Will Campbell at fourth overall, an offensive tackle who might actually keep Maye upright long enough to throw a forward pass. They also added running back TreVeyon Henderson from Ohio State, because apparently, they decided having a functional ground game might be useful.
The free agent signings tell a different story. Stefon Diggs brings legitimate NFL talent, though he’s coming off an injury-shortened season. Harold Landry III and Robert Spillane add veteran leadership on defense.
Breaking Down the Patriots’ Realistic Expectations
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: expecting the Patriots to win nine games isn’t just optimistic, it’s bordering on delusional. This is a team that won four games when they had theoretically more talent and a supposedly easier path to success.
But—and this is a big but—the combination of an easier schedule, natural progression from Maye, and simple regression to the mean could make 8-9 wins possible. Not likely, mind you, but possible in the same way that finding a decent parking spot downtown is possible.
The AFC East isn’t exactly a murderer’s row outside of Buffalo. The Jets are the Jets, and Miami has question marks at quarterback and coaching. If the Patriots can steal a few division games and feast on their cupcake non-conference schedule, nine wins isn’t impossible.
The Final Verdict on Patriots Win Total
Should you bet the over on Patriots 8.5 wins? That depends on how much you enjoy gambling with your emotions and your wallet. This is a team in transition with a young quarterback behind a questionable offensive line, facing expectations that might be slightly more realistic than previous years but still pretty optimistic. The smart money says take the under and laugh all the way to the bank. But if you’re feeling lucky and believe in the power of positive regression, the over at +100 isn’t the worst bet you could make this football season. If you don’t bet it, that’s fair play too.
