The bookmakers have spoken, and apparently, they’re not exactly rolling out the red carpet for the Miami Dolphins this season. With a win total set at a modest 7.5 games. But here’s the thing about the Dolphins: they’ve always been a team that thrives on proving people wrong. Or completely falling apart. There’s rarely an in-between with this franchise, which makes them both maddening and fascinating to follow.
The Tua Tagovailoa Dilemma: Miami’s Make-or-Break Factor
Let’s address the aquatic elephant in the room: Tua Tagovailoa’s health. The man has completed exactly one full season in his career, and wouldn’t you know it, that was 2023 when Miami actually made the playoffs. Coincidence? I think not.
When Tua Tagovailoa was healthy and taking at least 90% of snaps last season, the Dolphins averaged 25.5 points per game and went 6-4. When he wasn’t? They managed a pathetic 13.3 points per game with a 2-4 record. It’s almost like having your starting quarterback matters or something. Who would have thought?
The brutal reality is that Miami’s entire season hinges on whether its injury-prone signal-caller can stay upright. It’s not exactly the most comforting foundation to build a winning season on, but welcome to Dolphins football, where hope and heartbreak go hand-in-hand.
Schedule Analysis: Home Sweet Home (Maybe)
The scheduling gods have dealt Miami an interesting hand this season. On paper, they face the ninth-easiest schedule based on opponent win totals. That sounds promising until you realize that seven of their ten games against teams with 8.5+ win totals are at home. Historically, Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins have been significantly better at home (17-5) compared to on the road (8-11) with Tagovailoa under center. If that trend continues, Miami could actually capitalize on its home-heavy, difficult games. But that’s a pretty big “if” considering their recent track record and with McDaniel on the hot seat.
Offensive Regression and Defensive Concerns
Here’s where things get ugly for Dolphins fans. Miami’s offense went from second in DVOA in 2023 to a dismal 23rd in 2024. That’s not a gentle decline – that’s falling off a cliff while wearing cement shoes. Meanwhile, their defense ranked 19th in defensive DVOA last season while facing the fifth-easiest set of opposing offenses. This year, they’re projected to face the 15th-hardest group of offenses. So essentially, their defense needs to improve while facing tougher competition. Good luck with that math.
The Verdict: Cautious Optimism or Reckless Hope?
Looking at this Dolphins team, it’s hard not to feel like you’re watching a tightrope walker with a history of falling. The talent is there, particularly on offense when healthy. Also, there is a tremendous unknown about Mike McDaniel as the coach. But the concerns are equally valid. Tagovailoa’s health remains a massive question mark, the defense faces tougher competition, and this franchise has a remarkable ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
If you’re betting the over on 7.5 wins, you’re essentially betting that everything breaks right for Miami. If Tagovailoa stays healthy, the defense improves despite facing better offenses, and the team can capitalize on its home schedule advantage. The smart money might be on the under or not bet it at all.
