The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are sitting pretty with their 9.5-win total, and half the betting world thinks they’ll cruise to another NFC South title like it’s a Sunday drive through Clearwater Beach. But here’s the thing that keeps me up at night that I won’t sugarcoat: this team has some serious question marks that nobody wants to talk about.
Why the Buccaneers Are Getting Too Much Love
Let’s start with the elephant in the room. Liam Coen is gone. You know, the offensive coordinator who somehow turned Baker Mayfield from a journeyman into a 4,500-yard, 41-touchdown magician? If losing your offensive coordinator is no big deal, I’ve got some swampland to sell you.
The Buccaneers climbed from 20th in offensive DVOA to seventh last season under Coen’s guidance. That’s not just improvement – that’s a complete transformation. Sure, they still have Todd Bowles calling the shots, but losing the architect of your offensive resurgence feels like watching your favorite restaurant lose its head chef right before you make reservations.
The Injury Bug That Nobody’s Talking About
Here’s where it gets interesting. Tristan Wirfs, you know, the guy who’s supposed to protect Mayfield’s blind side, underwent knee surgery in July. He’s likely starting the season on the PUP list, which means the Buccaneers’ offensive line is about as stable as Florida weather in hurricane season.
And let’s not forget about the receiving corps. Tampa Bay lost 19.1 adjusted games to injury at the wide receiver position last season. Only the Saints and Chiefs lost more. Sure, they drafted Emeka Egbuka in the first round, but banking on a rookie to solve your depth issues is like betting on a three-legged horse to win the Kentucky Derby.
Why the NFC South Isn’t the Cakewalk Everyone Thinks
Sure, the Saints are starting either Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough at quarterback, two guys who couldn’t win a starting job at a Division II school last year. The Panthers are still figuring out if Bryce Young is the answer or the next Ryan Leaf. But here’s what everyone’s missing: the Falcons aren’t rolling over and playing dead. Atlanta made the bold move of benching Kirk Cousins for rookie Michael Penix Jr. That’s either genius or insanity, and there’s no middle ground. But you know what? Sometimes, crazy works in the NFL.
The Case for the Under
Here’s my take: the Buccaneers are being set up for disappointment. The betting public sees four straight division titles and thinks this is easy money. But dig deeper, and you’ll find a team dealing with coordinator turnover, injury concerns, and a schedule that could have them fighting for their playoff lives by Halloween. The smart money might be on the under 9.5 wins. This isn’t about disrespecting Tampa Bay, it’s about recognizing that regression is real, and sometimes even good teams hit speed bumps they can’t navigate.,
Final Thoughts
The Buccaneers aren’t a bad team. Baker Mayfield is still capable of throwing for 4,000 yards, Mike Evans can still stretch the field, and Todd Bowles knows how to coach. But in a league where the margin for error is thinner than a razor blade, all those question marks add up. Sometimes the best bet isn’t on the team everyone expects to win – it’s on recognizing when the odds don’t match the reality. And right now, reality suggests the Buccaneers might be in for a bumpier ride than anyone wants to admit.
