After watching the Atlanta Falcons stumble through another mediocre season in 2024, going 8-9 and missing the playoffs yet again, many have given up on this team. But here’s the thing: sometimes the betting market gets it wrong, and this might be one of those times. The oddsmakers have set the Falcons’ win total at 8.5 games, with +110 odds on the over and -130 on the under. That’s basically saying they expect Atlanta to hover around that same .500 mark they’ve become so frustratingly familiar with. But dig a little deeper, and you’ll find reasons to believe this team might finally break through.
The Michael Penix Jr. Era Begins
After Kirk Cousins laid an egg in his final stretch (seriously, how do you lose five of your last eight games with that roster?). The Atlanta Falcons made the bold decision to hand the keys to rookie Michael Penix Jr. for the final three games of 2024. Despite the tough situation, Penix showed potential with his arm talent, and more importantly, he’s not carrying the weight of past disappointments that seemed to crush Cousins when it mattered most. Good luck with his awful contract, Atlanta.
The Defense Got Some Serious Help
Let’s talk about those draft picks for a second. The Atlanta Falcons didn’t just dip their toes in the water; they dove headfirst into defensive upgrades. Jalon Walker from Georgia (pick 15) and James Pearce Jr. from Tennessee (pick 26) are both pass rushers who should immediately impact a defense that ranked 29th in DVOA last season. These aren’t developmental picks—these are guys who can contribute from day one.
The Bijan Robinson Factor
Here’s where things get really interesting. Bijan Robinson is entering his second year with a full understanding of the NFL game, and he’s got one of the best offensive line-running back combinations in the league. Only the Ravens, Bills, Eagles, and maybe the Packers can match what Atlanta has cooking in their ground game. If Robinson takes the expected leap from year one to year two (and all signs point to him doing exactly that), this offense could be absolutely explosive.
Why the Under Bettors Are Wrong
Look, the skepticism will always be there with the Atlanta Falcons. Especially as the franchise’s reputation never recovered after the 28-3 blown lead at Super Bowl 51. They’ve perfected the art of looking good on paper while finding creative ways to lose games they should win. But here’s what the under bettors are missing: this team was actually pretty good offensively last season. The offense isn’t broken; it just needed a different quarterback to unlock its potential.
The defense, meanwhile, got a massive injection of talent through the draft. When combining offensive continuity with defensive upgrades and a cupcake schedule, you’ve got a recipe for exceeding expectations.
The Bottom Line on Atlanta Falcons Win Total
I’m not saying the Atlanta Falcons are suddenly Super Bowl contenders (their +6000 odds make that pretty clear). But 8.5 wins feels conservative for a team that’s made meaningful improvements while catching a break with their schedule. The smart money here is on the over. This franchise has disappointed plenty of times before, but the pieces are finally falling into place for a modest breakthrough season. Sometimes in the NFL, modest is all you need to cash a ticket. Don’t overthink this one. Take the over, sit back, and watch Atlanta surprise some people in 2025.
