Ohio State vs. Miami Preview, Prediction & Odds | Cotton Bowl – Dec 31

Ohio State at Dallas practice
Ohio State (12-1) at Miami (11-2)
Game Details: Wednesday, December 31, 5:30 p.m. EST
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Where to Watch: ESPN

Matchup

It’s a collision of college football royalty and a program hungry to reclaim its spot among the elite. When the Ohio State Buckeyes meet the Miami Hurricanes on New Year’s Eve in Dallas, the stakes couldn’t be higher. 

This College Football Playoff quarterfinal brings together a defending national champion looking to steady the ship and a Miami squad fresh off a gritty postseason debut victory. 

Betting Odds

Team Spread Money Line Total
Ohio State-9.5-350Over 41.5
Miami+9.5+280Under 41.5

**Statistics from various online sources and courtesy of ESPN and FOX Sports **

Tale of The Tape

Ohio StateTeam Stats – Avg Per GameMiami
34.9Points Per Game32.2
266.8Passing Yards Per Game262.5
162.8Rushing Yards Per Game151.9
8.2Opponents Points Per Game Allowed13.0
129.1Opponents Pass Yards Allowed 194.5
84.5Opponents Rush Yards Allowed 87.0

Statistics from various online sources and courtesy of ESPN and FOX Sports

Key Details

Ohio State

The third-ranked Buckeyes are making their third consecutive trip to this bowl game, but they arrive with a chip on their shoulder after a stinging loss in the Big Ten championship. The Buckeyes (12-1) boast an offense teeming with explosive talent, led by quarterback Julian Sayin, who has dissected defenses for 3,323 yards and 31 touchdowns this season. 

His primary target, Jeremiah Smith, has been nothing short of spectacular, hauling in 80 catches for 1,086 yards and 11 scores. On the ground, Bo Jackson provides the balance, rushing for 1,035 yards. Yet, despite these gaudy numbers, the team is fueled by the bitter aftertaste of their recent 13-10 defeat to Indiana. It was a loss that cornerback Lorenzo Styles admitted forced the team to “take a step back” and “feel that pain,” a necessary reset for a squad that still sees their ultimate goals right in front of them.

Defensively, Ohio State remains formidable, anchored by linebacker Sonny Styles, who leads the unit with 81 tackles. The pass rush is equally lethal, with Caden Curry racking up 11 sacks and Arvell Reese adding another 6.5. This unit knows the pressure of the moment well; they are the only program to appear in five of the last seven playoffs under head coach Ryan Day. They are looking to channel the spirit of the 2014 team that won the inaugural CFP title in this very stadium. However, they are also wary of history repeating itself in the wrong way, keeping in mind their loss to Missouri in this same bowl game last season.

Miami

The Hurricanes (11-2) arrive in Texas with a reputation for suffocating defense, a strength fully on display in their 10-3 first-round victory over Texas A&M. Led by Rueben Bain Jr. and a stout front, Miami’s defense ranks seventh nationally in opponent EPA per play and ninth in success rate. Linebacker Mohamed Toure has been a tackling machine with 62 stops, while Bryce Fitzgerald has been a hawk in the secondary with six interceptions. Head coach Mario Cristobal knows the challenge ahead is steep, acknowledging that facing a rested Ohio State team adds a layer of unpredictability to the matchup.

Offensively, the Hurricanes rely on the arm of Carson Beck, who has thrown for 3,175 yards and 26 touchdowns. While Beck needs to limit mistakes to give his team a chance, he has found a reliable spark in Malachi Toney. The receiver is playing his best football at the perfect time, racking up five touchdowns and 348 yards over his last four games. Miami might be a newcomer to the CFP stage, but they entered the tournament with a chip on their shoulder after securing an at-large bid. This game represents more than just a quarterfinal; it’s a chance for the program to announce its return to national prominence.

Prediction

Ohio State plays in the better conference, plays a better schedule, and will easily dispose of Miami. Pick Ohio State, despite the large point spread.

Final Pick

Ohio State  +9.5

Over 41.5

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