Monday brings a compact two-game slate for NBA DFS. The competition landscape is bleak as the Pistons hold a -6.5 line over the Kings, and the Heat has a monstrous -13.5 line over the Pistons. Key players with GTD designations are Keegan Murray, Jalen Duren, Tobias Harris, Justin Edwards, Bam Adebayo, and Haywood Highsmith.
Best Plays evaluates players’ ownership and uses projection value to create an optimal yet unique roster addition. For consideration in two-game slates, players must have less than 40% ownership. All stats use Draft Kings scoring and ownership estimation.
NBA DFS Starting Guards
Tyler Herro (DK: $9,000, FD: $9,200)
Herro is in a lovely position and could be even more optimal if Adebayo sits. At 1.23 fantasy points per minute (FPPM), he should play between 32 and 38 minutes with or without a blowout. Over the last three games, in which the Heat won by 15+, he played 38, 33, and 32 minutes.
Fantasy Point Goal: 45 Total Apex Projection: 48
Malik Beasley (DK: $5,800, FD: $5,600)
Beasley gets minutes. He’s played 31+ in the last six games. A .92 FPPM creates an expectation of his salary around 29 points. With a 230-game over/under, scoring should come in bunches. The Kings’ defense is the second worst in the NBA defending the three, allowing 14.7 made per game. Beasley can use this to get hot beyond the arc.
Fantasy Point Goal: 29 Total Apex Projection: 33
Bench Options: Kyle Lowry, Alec Burks, and Zach LaVine
NBA DFS Starting Forwards
Haywood Highsmith (DK: $3,800 FD: $4,400)
A questionable tag and more potential minutes make Highsmith a leverage play. At $3,800, he’s an easy value that many DFS players may overlook due to three straight games of middling play. His ownership will land between 10 – 20%, but he averages 22 fantasy points when he plays over 30 minutes. If Adebayo sits, his minutes should break that threshold.
Fantasy Point Goal: 19 Total Apex Projection: 21
Ausar Thompson (DK: $6,600, FD: $7,100)
Many of the points made about Beasley apply to Thompson. The Kings let offenses do whatever they want, and the Pistons’ 10th overall pace metric suggests Detroit will do the same. Thompson’s salary has increased over the last five games, but it should justifiably be without Harris. If Harris sits, Thompson could scoop up a 40+ fantasy point night.
Fantasy Point Goal: 33 Total Apex Projection: 38
Bench Options: Duncan Robinson, Trey Lyles, and Ricky Council IV
NBA DFS Starting Center
Adam Bona (DK: $5,300 FD: $6,100)
Bona is a strong DFS option because the 76ers barely have enough bodies to field a team. We project 30 – 40% ownership, which was almost too high for Bona to be a consideration. Over the last five games, he has averaged 29 minutes. These minutes allow ceiling outcome probability while giving salary flexibility to get creative at other positions.
Fantasy Point Goal: 26.5 Total Apex Projection: 32
Bench Options: Kel’el Ware, Jalen Duren, and Isaiah Stewart
Final Thoughts
This time of year can be incredibly volatile, with many teams injured or tanking, making lineup decisions tough to forecast. Use these players to create a unique core and avoid the downfall of duplicated lineups by the field. The top DFS builds will consist of the right balance between studs and value options that pay at least 5x-6x their salaries.
Please double-check our player recommendations once all inactives get announced.
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