Washington Nationals (22-27) vs. Atlanta Braves (24-24)
Game Details: Thursday 22nd @ 6:45 pm EST
Location: Nationals Park
Trevor Williams (R) vs. AJ Smith-Shawver (R)
Where to Watch: MASN 2, FanDuel Sport Network South
Thursday night’s matchup between the Nationals and Braves at Nationals Park is a sharp bet for underbettors. At a complete game total of 8.5 and a First 5 Innings line under 4.5, our model sees heavy value on both unders. We have the projected runs at 7.805 runs and a full-game probability hit of 62%, thanks to pitching and weather conditions suppressing the offense.
The market overestimates run production in this game, where we, as smart bettors, scoop up the value. Let’s explore it here in Preview, Prediction, and Odds.
Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total Runs | Money Line |
 | +1.5 (-128) | Over 8.5 (-106) | +130 |
 | -1.5 (+106) | Under 8.5 (-114) | -154 |
Odds Courtesy of Fanduel
Apex Tale of The Tape
| Team Stats | |
| 4.24 | Runs/G | 4.13 |
| .242 | BA | .246 |
| .312 | OBP | .298 |
| .390 | SLG | .390 |
| .702 | OPS | .688 |
| 51 | HR | 51 |
| 49 | SB | 27 |
| 5.28 | ERA | 3.78 |
| 1.45 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| 7.9 | K/9 | 8.7 |
| .981 | Fielding Percentage | .983 |
| 15 | Saves | 15 |
Projected Starting Pitchers H2H
| Trevor Williams | Player Stats | AJ Smith-Shawver |
| 2-5 | W/L | 3-2 |
| 5.91 | ERA | 2.33 |
| 45.2 | IP | 38.2 |
| 1.53 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| 38 | K | 40 |
| 3 | BB | 17 |
Key Stats
Atlanta Braves
AJ Smith-Shawver might not be in optimal form, but he has shown signs of dominance in short stints. His 2.33 ERA proves it.
The Braves hit under 58% of the time, thanks to a cold spell in the middle of their batting order for a mediocre 3.91 runs per game. Our projection gives the Braves 4.15 runs today due to season-long metrics, 63-degree temps, 11MPH crosswinds from left to right, and a 31% chance of rain. The weather plays a part in this. Here’s hoping the weather experts’ predictions are as on point as ours are in the sports betting category.
Washington Nationals
Trevor Williams looks gnarly in the ERA department. But look a little closer, and you will find a piece of magical value. The Nationals have averaged a mere 4.31 runs a game and hit the under in 50% of those. More significantly, Williams does well in the first five-inning scenarios.
Atlanta’s offense is already slightly below average and matches up against a Nationals team that rarely attacks with slugging at home.
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Trends
| Betting Stats | |
| 5-5 | W/L 10 | 2 |
| 25-24-0 | ATS | 22-26 |
| 23-24-2 | O/U | 18-26-4 |
Prediction
This matchup presents a correlation value with both starters providing early command and neither offense showing a trend for high scoring. Our Monte Carlo simulations put a 62% true implied hit of the full game under, and 61% of the first five innings under.
Factor in conditions conducive to suppression and pace-projection slowdowns, and this is a premium spot for bettors to bask in the sun of intelligent under bets. Combine the game-specific context and ROI-based model simulations for today’s Preview, Prediction, and Odds.
