It’s hump day, so let’s get right back to work with today’s MLB parlay picks. Yesterday was a disappointing day again as we missed two selections. The Marlins blew a 6-0 lead, and the Jays lost in the bottom of the eighth. Such is life in the Sports betting industry. Our 1-2 ATS day brings our season record to 11-10 ATS. We added some additional plays we like tonight that are not included in the game write-ups.
All our followers know we seek out games seeing respected money or those where Vegas books have a heavy liability. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. We have another three selections on tap for you today. The betting lines discussed are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Parlay Leg #1: Boston Red Sox ML +120
The opening leg of today’s parlay will be the Boston Red Sox over the Milwaukee Brewers. We see the sharps are backing Boston in our initial play. The Brewers are seeing 65% of the tickets, but the Red Sox are netting 56% of the money.
There is some respected money inside that number, as the Mets opened up on the moneyline at +155 and have since dropped to +120. Boston’s recent SU and ATS numbers are not great overall, but they are 9-8 ATS as an underdog this season and 4-1 ATS in the last five as a ‘dog’ versus Milwaukee. We will take the Red Sox on the moneyline for play number one.
Parlay Leg #2: New York Mets Team Total over 4.5 -115
The middle leg, for the third straight day, will be the New York Mets’ team total over 4.5 runs. The Metropolitans delivered for us last night, and we look for more of the same today. New York, for the third straight day, is the second biggest chalk play on the MLB betting card. They have won four straight and five of six coming into this afternoon’s tilt with the White Sox.
The Mets plated six runs last night and are scheduled to face Sox starter Shane Smith. Smith has given up nine runs in his last 10 innings pitched. We expect more of the same today with the heavily favored Mets! The New York Mets team total over 4.5 for play number two.
Parlay Leg #3: Chicago Cubs Team Total over 4.5 -142
The anchor leg will be the Chicago Cubs team total over 4.5 runs. The Cubs are a ridiculous -320 moneyline favorite over the 9-46 Colorado Rockies. Colorado is yielding six runs per game on the season and 6.25 in their last four. Chicago is set to face Rockies starter Tanner Gordon, who brings a 4.38 ERA into today’s game and boasts a career 6.51 ERA.
On the other side, the Cubs are scoring seven runs a game in their last five. Finally, another factor in our favor is the fact that the Vegas books have heavily juiced this wager, indicating they need to protect themselves on the higher probability it hits.
Additional Leans: Braves, Blue Jays, Angels
Final Thoughts
The beauty of our parlays is that we can provide you with three individual plays. Remember, we will always play these picks SU because the hit rate on a three-team parlay is about 6-1 and not a long-term profitable betting strategy. We look to avoid public plays, which tend to be the betting favorites. Please follow us on social media as the MLB season continues toward the Fall Classic. Let’s get back on the winning side tonight and get three winners, and remember: Follow or Fade!
Parlay Odds: +620
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
