Back for a new week and a Monday Edition of our MLB parlay picks. July 4th was not kind to us, with all three selections failing to cash, dropping our season record to 38-32 ATS. Our followers know we target games seeing respected money and, more precisely, reverse line movements. We have another three selections on tap for you, along with some additional leans that we like based on the line movement. The betting lines discussed are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
MLB Parlay Leg #1: Boston Red Sox Alternate TT over 4.5 -205
Leading off today’s MLB parlay will be the Boston Red Sox‘s alternate team total over 4.5 runs. Boston is the biggest chalk on the betting slate tonight as they are set to face the 21-69 Colorado Rockies. We like to pick on the Rockies’ pitching staff, which is allowing six runs per game. The Red Sox offense has been cooking lately, scoring 27 runs in their weekend series versus the Washington Nationals.
In addition, Colorado has allowed 50 runs in their last 10 road games. When you pair that with scheduled starter, Austin Gombers’ 5.49 ERA, we like the betting probabilities here. Boston Red Sox alternate team total over 4.5 for play number one!
MLB Parlay Leg #2: Milwaukee Brewers ML +114
In the middle of our MLB lineup will be the Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers. We spotted our staple reverse line movement here, with respected money coming in on the Brewers. Milwaukee is seeing just 27% of the money, and the books keep dropping the line. They opened up as a +137 underdog and now sit at +114. The Brewers are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games overall and 7-3 in the last 10 at home. The Dodgers, despite being in first place, are just 41-50 ATS on the season and 5-5 SU in the last 10 on the road. We will follow the sharps here and take the Milwaukee Brewers for play number two!
MLB Parlay Leg #3: San Francisco Giants ML +114
To close out our MLB parlay, we have the San Francisco Giants over the Philadelphia Phillies. Another reverse line movement here as the Giants’ line continues to drop despite them seeing just 39% of the money. San Francisco is 4-1 SU in their last five games overall and 6-4 SU in the last 10 as an underdog. The Giants have also won nine of the ten games versus the Phillies at home. We are back the sharps again, and taking the San Francisco Giants for play number three!
Additional Leans: White Sox ML, Pirates ML, Angels ML
Final Thoughts
The beauty of our MLB parlays is that we can provide our followers with three individual plays. We will play these picks SU because the hit rate on a three-team parlay is about 6-1, not a long-term profitable betting strategy. Nailing the parlay is simply icing on the cake. We avoid public plays, which tend to be the betting favorites. Please follow us on X and Facebook as the MLB season continues toward the Fall Classic. Let’s keep stacking the winning days and get you three winners. And remember: Follow or Fade!
Parlay Odds: +581
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
