Yesterday was a day off for us, but we return with a Fourth of July Edition of our MLB Parlay Picks. Wednesday’s plays went just 1-2 ATS; however, the parlay narrowly missed with both team totals missing by just half a run each. The result drops our season record to 38-29 ATS.
Our followers know we target games that are seeing respected money and, more precisely, reverse line movements. We have another three selections on tap for you and some additional leans that we like based on the line movement. The betting lines discussed are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
MLB Parlay Leg #1: Pittsburgh Pirates ML +164
In the leadoff spot of today’s MLB parlay is the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Seattle Mariners. The sharps keep backing the Pirates as we have a reverse line movement going on. Pittsburgh is seeing 21% of the money, and the line continues to move in their direction. They opened up as a hefty +201 underdog and have since fallen to +164. The Pirates are inspired ball under new skipper Donnie Kelly and just finished a 6-0 homestand where they outscored their opponents 43-4. In addition, they are 8-2 SU in their last 10 overall and 4-1 in the last five as an underdog. Pittsburgh Pirates on the money line for play number one!
MLB Parlay Leg #2: Atlanta Braves Alternate TT over 3.5 -230
In the middle of the lineup will be the Atlanta Braves’ alternate team total over 3.5 runs. Atlanta is the biggest chalk on today’s MLB betting slate. The Braves are set to face a reeling Orioles team, allowing five runs per game on the season and seven per game across the last six. Scheduled Baltimore starter Charlie Morton brings a 5.53 ERA into tonight’s game. Atlanta’s offense has not been stellar of late, but it still averages over four runs per game should be able to post its season’s average to cash this one. Atlanta Braves alternate team total over 3.5 runs for play number two!
MLB Parlay Leg #3: Los Angeles Dodgers TT over 4.5
To close out today’s MLB parlay, we have the Los Angeles Dodgers team total over 4.5 runs. They are the second-largest betting favorite today, and we will play off that. The Dodgers score just under six runs per game on the year and have plated at least five runs in six straight games. We pair that with scheduled Houston starter Lance McCullers, and we like the probability of hitting on this play. McCullers is 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA on the year and allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts. The Los Angeles Dodgers team total over 4.5 runs for play number three!
Additional Leans: Twins ML, Padres ML, White Sox/Dodgers alternate total over 10
Final Thoughts:
The beauty of our MLB parlays is that we can provide our followers with three individual plays. We will play these picks SU because the hit rate on a three-team parlay is about 6-1, not a long-term profitable betting strategy. Nailing the parlay is simply icing on the cake. We avoid public plays, which tend to be the betting favorites. Please follow us on X and Facebook as the MLB season continues toward the Fall Classic. Let’s keep stacking the winning days and get three winners, and remember: Follow or Fade!
Parlay Odds: +534 and +694 with available profit boost
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
