Chicago Cubs (25 – 18) vs. Miami Marlins (15 – 26)
Game Details: Wednesday, May 14th, 7:30 PM EDT
Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago IL
Taillon (R) vs. Weather (L)
Where to Watch: Marquee Sports Network, Fanduel Sports Network Florida
We will focus on one primary bet our model found an edge on: Jameson Taillon’s Strikeout Prop. As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field, bettors can get solid value on his K’s prop of 5.5. Given the matchup and pitching profile, the under presents a compelling value play.
Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total Runs | Money Line |
 | +1.5 (-115) | Over 7.5 (-112) | +184 |
 | -1.5 (-104) | Under 7.t (-120) | –220 |
Apex Tale of The Tape
Projected Starting Pitchers H2H
| Jameson Taillon | Player Stats | Ryan Weathers |
| 2 – 2 | W/L | N/A (Season Debut) |
| 4.53 | ERA | NA |
| 1 | IP | NA |
| 1.168 | WHIP | NA |
| 35 | K | NA |
| 10 | BB | NA |
Best Bets Key Stats
Taillon’s 2025 Performance
Through eight starts, Taillon has pitched 43.2 innings, averaging approximately 5.4 innings per outing. His strikeout rate stands at 7.2 per nine innings, creating an .8 strikeouts per inning. Add these data points together, and we get an average of 4.8 strikeouts over time. This .7 gap is big enough for a bet. You’re paying heavy juice at -13,4 so I’ll take 1.34 units on it to cover.
Recent Performance Highlights
April 27th, 2025: Taillon recorded his 1,000th career strikeout against the Phillies, striking out Bryson Stott in the first inning.
May 9, 2025: In his last start, Taillon pitched 5 innings, allowing 2 earned runs and striking out 4 batters against the Miami Marlins.
Marlin’s Offensive Profile
The Marlins demonstrate a contact-oriented approach with 8.71 K’s per game. This places them in the lower half of the league for strikeout frequency. Their lineup emphasizes early contact and reduces opportunities for opposing pitchers to accumulate strikeouts.
Betting Market Analysis
The under on Taillon’s 5.5 strikeouts is priced at -135, implying a 57% probability. Our model takes Taillon’s expected innings and strikeout rate against Miami’s contact-heavy lineup for a 66% probability. This creates expected value and a real opportunity for a positive return on investment, thanks to a 9% edge over the market.
Prediction
When analyzing prop bets like strikeouts, the key lies in the pitcher’s expected workload, the opposing team’s contact, and the market line. We take all the data points and smash this bet. This keeps guesswork and emotional gut feelings out of it for long-term gains. Miami is a bottom-feeder when it comes to strikeouts. It is easy to get lured in by name recognition or recency bias, but success lies in trusting the data over a long period of time. The value is there: take the under.
