Matt Olson is an often-overshadowed player as he plays a position that has the most talented depth pool when it comes to fantasy baseball. This can play into many managers’ advantages as the draft season is beginning to heat up while the weather is still chilly and cold outside. So, let’s dive into how Olson can be a boom or a bane, depending on your fantasy needs and your league’s specific rules. Spoiler points vs. roto (rotisserie, no, not the delicious chicken at Costco, categories for the new to fantasy baseball managers) will decide if you should target or pass on this humble Atlanta first baseman.
Matt Olson 2024 Production
Olson came into the 2024 season looking to no longer be the guy who replaced Freddie Freeman, now of those annoying Dodgers. But rather make his own name on a great Atlanta Braves team. Regarding fantasy baseball, there is no deeper position than first base. With players like Vlady Jr., Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso, and newly minted Bryce Harper, it is easy to get lost in the mix and even harder to stand out as elite.
But let’s take a quick peek at some stats from the 2024 season to show why Olson might be a better fit for your team at a cheaper price, albeit not much cheaper. In home runs, he ranked sixth; RBI fourth; hits he ranked seventh; BB sixth; XBH third; and runs ranked seventh. This is all against other first basemen. This showed that Olson provided quite a bit of value for a discounted rate in many roto categories and was a significant source of production depending on the league’s point system.
For the 2024 season, according to Fantrax, in my humble opinion, a better fantasy system that’s on the market had Olson’s ADP at 32.3 in a 10-team league that’s the third round and 12 that’s the end of the second start of the third and 14 that’s a second-rounder. While that may not seem like a discount, consider Freddie Freeman ADP 27.63, Bryce Harper ADP 20.93, and Vlady Jr. 14.69. With these elite bats being drafted ahead of Olson, if you were patient, you could have snagged an arguably all-around better hitter for a lower ADP cost.
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Now let’s get into the meat and potatoes as to why you are reading this article. You, as a Fantasy Baseball manager, have tough decisions to make, and you are looking to the great mind of Buzz Killington to lead you to the big dance this year, the playoffs, I should say. As all it takes is to make it to the playoffs, once there anything can happen, and one man can be a huge help or a massive anchor depending on your league and its scoring. That man is Matt Olson.
So, as a manager, look at what kind of league you are in. If it’s roto/categories and strikeouts do not negatively affect categories, highlight, circle, tab, whatever you need to do, and get Olson on your team. If strikeouts are more than -1 in scoring for a points league, then have caution with Atlanta’s first baseman.
Let’s look at the reasoning here. I am a stout believer in drafting skills, not stats. Olson took a step back in power numbers last year, but all his underlying power metrics are there with an incredibly high floor, thus indicating the 31-year-old lefty still has plenty of pop in his bat. But this does come at a high K%, meaning he will strike out a bunch and then some. Hence the asterisk.
If your league frowns upon strikeouts from hitters, then you will need to lower the rounds by two you want to get him in, or if it’s an auction league, drop your amount by 5-10$. There is plenty of upside to be excited about, even with the heavy strikeout numbers.
Hitting on a good team like the Braves will prop up all of his other stats as well. A word of caution to this tale: be excited for Olson and target him with no hesitation. But, there is always a but; know your league’s rules and how his high K% will impact your team. If you can, counter with a lower K% player like Luis Arraez, or plan and adjust for those high strikeouts each week.
Be okay with passing up on the Freddie Freemans, Bryce Harpers, Vlady Jrs., and Pete Alonsos, if he even signs this year. I liken Olson to Paul Goldschmidt at the same time frame in their careers—a consistent, great bat with great power. Your league members will look at you a little funky as you let “sure-fire guys” go by; just know you have good ol’ Matt Olson in your pocket. Just don’t wait too long to snag him up. Keep an eye on other teams if they haven’t filled the 1B slot, as he will look better and more tantalizing each round and pick that goes by.
