Miami Marlins (18-27) vs. Chicago Cubs (28-19)
Game Details: Monday May 19th, 6:40 Eastern
Location: loanDeport park Miami, FL
Edward Cabrera vs. Ben Brown
Where to Watch: Marquee Sports Network, FanDuel Sports Network Florida
Happy Monday! Let’s celebrate by betting on two volatile arms and quietly profitable over teams with a May 19th showdown between the Marlins and the Cubs. This game offers not one but three edges on total markets to exploit.
With Ben Brown and Edward Cabrera toeing the rubber, our model found team total overs for both sides and the full game total as plus-ROI betting targets.
The loanDepot park is generous for runs thanks to warmer spring temperatures, and the poor bullpen play is the cherry on top for today’s Preview, Prediction, and Odds. Let’s turn those “Case of the Mondays” into a profitable betting card.
Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total Runs | Money Line |
 | +1.5 (-110) | Over 8.5 (-124) | +146 |
| -1.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (+102) | -174 |
Odds Courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook
Apex Tale of The Tape
| Team Stats |
|
| 3.98 | Runs/G | 5.74 |
| .248 | BA | .254 |
| .312 | OBP | .327 |
| .385 | SLG | .441 |
| .697 | OPS | .768 |
| 42 | HR | 65 |
| 39 | SB | 59 |
| 5.34 | ERA | 3.93 |
| 1.48 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 8 | K/9 | 8.1 |
| .986 | Fielding Percentage | .986 |
| 9 | Saves | 15 |
Projected Starting Pitchers H2H
| Edward Cabrera | Player Stats | Ben Brown |
| 0-1 | W/L | 3-3 |
| 5.52 | ERA | 4 |
| 29.1 | IP | 41.2 |
| 1.53 | WHIP | 1.56 |
| 26 | K | 50 |
| 13 | BB | 16 |
Key Stats
Full Game Over 8.5 (-124)
Each team’s current form screams over. Add this to a combined over record of 54-36 (60%) for both teams, and it makes even more sense. Ben Brown and Edward Cabrera tout a 5.13 ERA average with a subpar strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB), creating more on-base opportunities for batters. Each pitcher uses their fastball over 50%, and both lineups know how to attack that particular pitch.
The weather shows an 85-degree game-time temperature with humidity near 70%. This weather combo can be a magical potion for exit velocity. Our model suggests a 9.205 run line well above the current 8.5 offering. We smash the over when two bottom-third bullpens collide, and the starters have such a high walk rate.
Marlins over 3.5 runs (-115) & Cubs over 4.5 runs (-140)
Miami has been sneaky efficient at clearing low team totals, hitting the over on their team line in 62% of games. Ignore their anemic season record and focus on any coinflip-type bet with a six or higher as the first number. The Marlin’s south-paw sluggers (Stowers, Sanchez) get a juicy match-up against Brown, who allows a .278 BAA with a 4.75 ERA. The Cubs’ cakewalk bullpen posts a 1.37 WHIP and has blown multiple leads in May. Swordfish, you are cleared for offensive takeoff.
The Cubs are in the top 10 in home runs and the top squad for stolen bases. It is not fun being a pitcher facing a dual-threat team that can punish the most minor mistake. Cabrera has walked 13 batters in 29.1 IP for a 1.53 WHIP and failed to complete six innings in four of his six starts.
The Cubs averaged 5.55 runs over their last ten games. Our model has them at 5.6 today, a whopping 1.1 over what the books serve currently. The Marlins’ relievers have been worse than the starters, allowing .289 BAA since May 1st and ranking 28th in bullpen ERA. The Cubs should continue their winning ways by attacking the Miami pitching staff.
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Trends
| Betting Stats |
|
| 4-6 | W/L 10 | 6-4 |
| 23-22 | ATS | 25-22 |
| 27-18 | O/U | 27-18 |
Prediction
Take the value in these three bets and hope for a night of offensive fireworks. Our simulations favor the Cubs winning outright with a projected 5.6 – 4.5 final score. The Cubs have the edge in pitching form and dual-threat offense, while the Miami Marlins are limited to bullpen meltdowns and poor defensive metrics. This game’s most frequent simulation cluster outcome was Cubs 6, Marlins 4. Let’s see those bats light up and bet it as such.
