The postseason grind is on for NBA DFS. Every possession matters, and the rotations shrink to give us tight choices in DFS. Using playoff minutes, we can exploit specific matchups and find mid-range value players still on the court in key moments. With Ownership surrounding the stars, let’s find players with stable floors. Here’s our battle plan for NBA May 10th’s Main Slate Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em.
Lock of the Day
Jayson Tatum
$9,400
Ownership: 55% – 65%
Tatum has not looked like himself over the first two games of the series against the Knicks. He usually averages 27.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 5.1 assists. Over the first two games, he scored 23 and 13 points, 16 and 14 rebounds, and 6 and 5 assists. Weird. Positive regression is coming, and the field agrees with such a high ownership percentage. His usage, volume, and rebounding stability make this an easy click, as some meat is still left on the bone for a ceiling game. He is a no-brainer core piece in all formats for NBA DFS.
Start ‘Em
Buddy Hield
$4,400
Ownership: 47.5% – 57.5%
Steve Kerr likes to keep us guessing regarding rotations, but he trusts Hield over Moses Moody during clutch time. It could be age, experience, or perhaps Kerr’s gut feeling he gets while drinking his coffee that morning. Even with the risk, I’m going with Buddy. His off-ball movement and catch-and-shoot volume give him plenty of looks from three. The $4,400 price tag could easily return a 5X+ value if he knocks those threes down.
Jonathan Kuminga
$4,200
Ownership: 33.5% – 43.5%
We lose Curry, and suddenly, Kerr throws Kuminga back in. He went from playing zero minutes to 26.4. DK is not adjusting the price to account for his all-around skill set; we will take advantage of that. His size and athleticism make him a Swiss army knife for the Warriors, and he gets to do it against the Timberwolf’s second unit, which is vulnerable to slashers. His per-minute efficiency makes him a great start.
Sit ‘Em
Luke Kornet
$3,700
Ownership: 3% – 13%
Unless a blowout scenario or foul trouble strikes, Kornet remains a bench option with little relevance in Boston’s playoff rotation. Porzingis’ minutes have been strange, yet he still couldn’t pull off a 5X salary to value the game with that opportunity. Porzingis should get over the 20-minute mark soon, leading Kornet with even less opportunity. Add in that he is only Center eligible on DK, and there is no reason to have him in your rotation.
Nickel Alexander-Walker
$3,600
Ownership: 3% – 13%
Context matters. This sentiment is especially true regarding NAW’s 30.5-point fantasy outburst in Game 2. That came during a blowout where he shot 4-of-6 from beyond the arc. The field will chase these points and is an excellent spot for us to pivot to less owned players with more consistent fantasy scoring. NAW is a low-usage defensive plug-in who rarely touches the ball enough to be DFS-relevant. Do not chase the unsustainable ceiling.
Fade of the Day
Pat Spencer
$3,100
Ownership: 2% – 7%
Yes, Stephen Curry is out, but that does not make Spencer playable. The PG next to his name seems interesting, but most of the points bump goes to other players like Hield, Brandin Podziemski, and Jonathan Kuminga. After playing for 14 minutes, he only took two shots in the last game. Without an offensive role, he’s more of an emergency body than a usage spike candidate. Fade the trap even at his almost bare minimum price.
