Justin Jefferson is the best wide receiver in the world. However, recent injury woes and quarterback regressions have caused Jefferson’s stock to fall heading into 2024. Jefferson has fallen from the unanimous #1 overall pick to a mid-first-rounder in redraft fantasy football leagues.
Jefferson has proven that he can perform at an elite level regardless of who is throwing him the football. With that being said, something feels different heading into this season. Can Justin Jefferson continue to provide wide receiver 1 upside heading into 2024 despite the injury and quarterback question marks?
Justin Jefferson 2023 Production
Justin Jefferson had a very productive 2023 season despite only playing in 10 games. In 2 of those 10 games, Jefferson only saw a 70% and 18% snap share as he was dealing with injury. Jefferson still hauled in 68 balls for 1017 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Jefferson was on pace for 24 fantasy points per game if you take those two bloopers out of the equation. That rate would have made him the WR1 in all of fantasy over a full season. Jefferson showed that he is not solely the product of good quarterback play, rather he is the impetus of good quarterback play.
Vikings quarterback Nick Mullens threw for 1,110 yards in 3 of his last 4 games to end 2023. Justin Jefferson was responsible for 417 of those yards, which adds up to 37.5% of all receiving work. Jefferson is what makes the Vikings offense go, but is he worth the risk at such a high price tag in 2024 drafts?
Justin Jefferson 2024 Projections
Justin Jefferson is currently being drafted 4th overall in redraft leagues, according to Fantasy Pros. He is projected to finish with 105 catches, 1,445 receiving yards, and 7.6 touchdowns in 2024. A first-round draft pick in redraft leagues is expected to compete for the best player in fantasy football, or at least the best player at their position.
There is no question about Justin Jefferson’s talent, but there are massive question marks surrounding the quarterback play. Rookie first-round quarterbacks (JJ McCarthy) since 1999 have averaged 10 starts per season, 2,262 passing yards, and 12 touchdowns. That is not a recipe for success in 2024 as a receiver.
It is clearly a much higher risk drafting Jefferson in redraft leagues compared to dynasty leagues. In redraft, you need guys who are going to be great right now. Jefferson is surrounded by the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Ja’maar Chase, Ceedee Lamb, and Amon Ra St. Brown at the top of draft boards. All of those guys have a much safer floor and an equally as high ceiling entering the upcoming season. You cannot wait for a rookie quarterback to develop in redraft, and you should be cautious selecting Jefferson with a top 5 selection in 2024.
Final Thoughts
Be extremely cautious with Justin Jefferson in redraft fantasy leagues. It may be worth taking Jefferson if he falls to the 1.07 or 1.08 in redraft, but not as high as the 1.05. Take players with safer floors who could also finish as the best player in all of fantasy football. Do not be afraid to pass on Jefferson just because of his name. Be smart heading into the 2024 season!
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