For the past three seasons, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been either the top-ranked or second-ranked at his position for fantasy football.
However, that was with wide receiver Stefon Diggs, as the Minnesota Vikings traded him to Buffalo in 2020. In 2019, Allen without Diggs was the 6th ranked quarterback and during his rookie season in 2018, he was the 21st ranked as their starter from day one as a former eighth overall pick.
After a four-year run with the dynamic duo, the Bills this offseason traded the veteran Pro Bowl pass catcher to the Houston Texans, which leaves a void at the position without the 30-year-old All-Pro.
Entering his seventh NFL season, the All-Pro and Pro Bowl 28-year-old quarterback will be without a superstar receiver but ultimately, will it impact his fantasy production for 2024?
Josh Allen 2023 Stats and Production
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Even though Josh Allen was behind Patrick Mahomes in 2022, 2023 was a down year for the quarterback position, and Allen was statistically the best at the position for fantasy.
According to FantasyPros, he finished with the highest average fantasy points per game at 24.2 and total points at the position by far, with 410.6. Allen surpassed 4,300 passing yards but had a career-high 18 interceptions in 2023.
This past year was a revelation with his rushing touchdown success, doubling his previous career high with 15 rushing touchdowns even with fewer career yards on the ground. This tied with Jalen Hurts, who also benefited from the tush push, and goalline runs near the endzone.
Josh Allen should maintain his rushing floor as a featured weapon as a runner at 6’5″ and 237 pounds, even if his rushing touchdowns go down somewhat since he was so efficient in 2023. There could be a scenario where maybe the Bills cut back some of his rushing work due to his injury history, but that should benefit the offense overall especially later on in the season.
29 passing touchdowns were lower than in previous years, so he will have to hit at least 30 and cut down on the turnovers for the Buffalo passer to pay off as the top quarterback with his current average draft position.
From 2023 to 2024, Allen’s ADP has gone from a fringe first-round pick in fantasy drafts to more of a second-round pick in leagues. I think that is an appropriate dip, just because of the downgrade of talent at wide receiver.
Josh Allen 2024 Fantasy Outlook
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Despite their losses at wide receiver with Diggs via trade and Gabe Davis leaving in free agency, the Bills acquired some talent at the position through free agency and the NFL Draft to help out Josh Allen.
Buffalo signed experienced weapons like Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool, and Mack Hollins in free agency. In the 2024 NFL Draft, they took Keon Coleman at the top of the second round as their starting outside receiver.
When healthy, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox make up one of the better tight-end duos in the NFL, and running back James Cook was utilized out of the backfield once he got acclimated as a second-year starter.
Kincaid, a former first-round tight end from 2023, was often used in the slot as a hybrid flex player. As long as Josh Allen can function within the scheme by spreading the ball around, I think his upside is still top-tier with his touchdown equity as a rusher near the goal line.
Final Thoughts on Josh Allen
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Buffalo’s plan at pass catcher for 2024 is essentially aggregating a bunch of players to play roles for offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s scheme with Josh Allen. Khalil Shakir is the only player still projected to play a factor from 2023, who should be their starting slot receiver while free agent Samuel is projected to be their other starting receiver.
I think despite Allen not having top-tier targets, the scheme itself is more key than the players themselves, as the scheme change mid-season in 2023 did lead to them winning more games and division again at 11-6.
According to FantasyPros, it will be tougher for the Buffalo superstar in 2024, slated to have the hardest schedule against quarterbacks on paper. Among the names that are drafted after all have some rushing upside with a high enough passing floor in elite offense, including Mahomes, Hurts, and Lamar Jackson.
Josh Allen is ranked 19th overall and is number one for his position as a round-two player in fantasy leagues, as he is worth the selection but potentially more value can be had with other quarterbacks a round or two later.
Worst case scenario on paper, the Bills quarterback should still be at the very minimum, a top-three fantasy quarterback and that is reflected in his FantasyPros ADP.
About the Author
Previously wrote for Fansided NFL Mocks, Pro Football Network, uInterview/ uSports, the Daily Culture, and Ironiq Media. Recent Journalism/ Media Studies Grad and wrote for Impact News, the award-winning news publication of Mercy College, now Mercy University.
Now writing for Total Apex Sports about the NFL, NFL draft, and fantasy football, along with Total Apex E&G about movies, shows, anime, and gaming. You can follow me on Instagram @kimandrew1357 and Twitter (aka X) @kookykim1357.
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