Jaylen Waddle and his Alabama teammate Devonta Smith are the two best WR2s in the league as both of these two guys can be WR1 someday. Waddle should continue to show off his speed in the high-paced Miami Dolphins offense as he and Tyreek Hill will continue to be the fastest WR duo in the league by far.
Waddle did have one of the most lackluster 2023 seasons from a guy who was expected to make a huge leap with the addition of Hill on the team. He did achieve over a thousand yards receiving again in 2023 but fantasy owners have to be disappointed with his production, let’s look at that production in detail.
Jaylen Waddle 2023 Production
Waddle had 72 receptions for 1,014 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2023. He had 198.6 fantasy points on ESPN fantasy games last season. Waddle had some issues with some injuries along the way missing three games last season.
Fantasy Pros had Waddle as the WR29 last season. Waddle was outside the top 50 wide receivers in the NFL in deep targets (54th) and red zone looks (56th). When you look at the counting numbers and these metrics it does show he had a disappointing season for fantasy owners in 2023 which is true for most fantasy owners.
Waddle did have a 24% target share last season which means there is a strong possibility that he could have a strong bounce-back season this upcoming year speaking of let’s look at the projections.
Jaylen Waddle 2024 Projections
ESPN currently has Waddle projected as the WR 20 on their metric with a projected stat line of 81 receptions for 1,069 yards and five touchdowns, while also having 25 rushing yards. Since his rookie season, he has caught 66.5% of his targets since his rookie season which means he’s a reliable pass catcher these last few years when on the field, and he’s still second in targets behind Hill.
Fantasy Pros has Waddle’s ECR rating as WR15 this season, the Dolphins also have a tough WR schedule at 27 this season. Waddle ranked fifth in yards per route run and sixth in first downs per route run last season (per Fantasy Points Data). That statistic that Fantasy Pros points out from Fantasy Points Data is important towards Waddle’s projections because it shows that Waddle is moving the chains a lot of the time he gets the targets and the route running will lead to the big plays down the field.
Waddle should have ample opportunities to make plays this season because Tyreek Hill will see more double coverage this season, Tua will have to show his accuracy to get the ball to him in advantageous positions this season to achieve what I believe he can achieve.
Final Thoughts
Waddle has a huge boom or bust potential in 2024 because of the reliance on the QB play at times and his health. Waddle will produce huge numbers in 2024 if he can get into the end zone more this year because he will achieve over 1,000 yards again because of the number of targets he’ll have for sure in 2024.
Tua will play a key part in this because Miami’s offense runs better with Tua than anybody else in there. Tua did bulk up a little in the offseason meaning he should be able to take a few more hits this season than in years past, helping him withstand a little bit longer to find the open target. This creates a split second of more separation for both Hill and Waddle.
I would personally take Waddle in the middle of round three if he’s there, he would definitely be a steal value in round five. Waddle’s speed alone and his deep routes are always worth a look at in fantasy football because of the big play potential.
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