You can always play it safe and go with the consensus when you draft your Fantasy Football teams. But what fun is that, especially when it will probably lead you somewhere to the middle of the pack and no better? The old saying is that you have to take a stand for something, or you’ll fall for anything, and I believe it applies to Fantasy Football.
Throughout this draft season, I’ve consistently been picking certain players at specific positions over others at the same position who have lower ADPs. Maybe I’m wrong. But if I’m right on ever a couple of them, I should have an edge over everyone who just went with the same-old, same-old in their Fantasy Football drafts.
Quarterback: Joe Burrow over Anthony Richardson
I actually think this is an easy choice in those leagues that allow 6 points per touchdown pass. But even if it’s only 4 points per, I can live with this decision. Burrow is my choice to lead the league in touchdown passes, as he has a loaded receiving corps (and, yes, I believe Ja’Marr Chase will be back) and, unlike the past two years, he goes into the season fully healthy and with a camp’s worth of reps.
Unlike some of the other running quarterbacks available this year, Richardson has no real passing success to which you can point under his belt, not even in college. I’m just not convinced that he can sustain on running alone. There will be big games, no doubt, but I think the consistency, which Burrow should provide, might be lacking. And more than any other Fantasy position, you need that consistency at quarterback.
Running Back: Travis Etienne Jr. over De’Von Achane
These two have actually become much tighter as draft season has worn on, but Achane still gets selected a bit earlier on the average. Don’t get me wrong: I love Achane as a player. But it rarely ever works to extrapolate a tiny sample size of success, as Achane enjoyed early last year for about a month before injuries hit, to project a player over an entire year.
On top of that, there’s the matter of it being a crowded backfield in Miami, one where Achane won’t get the goal-line touches, because the Dolphins have somebody else on the roster who does that quite well. Meanwhile, Etienne, with questionable depth behind him, gets all the touches he can handle in Jacksonville. I also think that offense is going to be much improved this year, which will help Etienne’s efficiency.
Wide Receiver: Chris Olave over Marvin Harrison Jr.
Harrison comes into his rookie year as polished as any receiver out there. And the touches will be there. I’m just not sure if there’s a ton of touchdown upside in his game at this point in his career. Not to mention that a rookie is never a sure thing, even one as acclaimed as he is.
On the other hand, Olave has shown us two seasons of excellent productivity, and it feels like there’s another level he can reach. He might have even less target competition than Harrison. Both tower over the next-best wideout option on their team, but Harrison will be ceding touches to a top-notch tight end in Trey McBride, something that won’t be the case for Olave. Give me the grizzled three-year veteran in this battle of Ohio State products.
Tight End: Brock Bowers over Kyle Pitts
I get that Pitts is playing in a more receiver-friendly system this year. But, wow, does he ever have to improve to get anywhere near the level he’s being drafted. We’re talking about a guy with a grand total of 6 touchdown catches in three years in the NFL. At what point do we stop believing he can emerge?
This is kind of the opposite of the Olave-Harrison argument. We’ve seen Pitts, and the results, for all the hype, have been kinda meh. Bowers comes in with a world of potential on a team desperate for weapons. Give me him and the possibility of a major LaPorta-esque breakout, instead of hoping the light comes on for Pitts.
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