The 5-6 Dolphins, pushing for a playoff spot, head to chilly Green Bay on Thursday Night to take on the 8-3 Packers for Thanksgiving. With the weather playing a big factor in this game and with the Dolphins failing to show up in cold weather games in the past, some might fade Miami in Green Bay. However, both offenses are operating differently compared to past seasons, for better or for worse.
However, the sample size is pretty limited and their opponents have been difficult when they do play in colder conditions. Getting ownership of players who may get overlooked is key to winning in DFS, especially for the widely popular holiday slates. This is a must-win for the Dolphins for any shot at the playoffs, while the Packers are trying to catch up with the Minnesota Vikings (9-2) being a game back.
Dolphins vs. Packers DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players that we are leaning on heavily in this game. These players are in a good spot to put together a solid performance and have a favorable matchup.
Dontayvion Wicks ($4.2K DraftKings, $5.4K Fanduel)
With Romeo Doubs likely out with a concussion he suffered last week on short notice, Dontayvion Wicks steps into a starting receiving role once again. Christian Watson dropped a long but wide-open touchdown last week and still can always hit a big play. Jayden Reed has had his production dip and with the price tag, it isn’t worth chasing the big play from those receivers. Wicks has had big games in the past and while he could let down again, he is the cheapest out of the three main Packers receivers.
Jonnu Smith ($4.3K DraftKings, $6.3K Fanduel)
Although he is the highest-priced tight end in this game, Jonnu Smith is worth it as a tight end 1 the past few weeks. The volume as a safety valve for Tua Tagovailoa has resulted in elite production for the Dolphins. Smith has been a top 5 tight end on the year and is coming off an 8 and 11 target performance with 3 total touchdowns the last two weeks. While Tucker Kraft on the Packers is cheaper, his volume is way more volatile and needs a touchdown, while Smith has essentially been a starting receiver for Miami.
Dolphins vs. Packers DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side of things, here are a few of the players we are sitting in this one.
Raheem Mostert ($4.7K DraftKings, $5K Fanduel)
The veteran Raheem Mostert has basically been a backup handcuff, as he is behind Achane and ceding touches to rookie Jaylen Wright. Wright had 7 carries last week to Mostert’s 2, as his return from injury hasn’t cut into the backfield touches like last season. Achane is also the player the Dolphins use in the red zone instead of the veteran, so Mostert shouldn’t be looked at as a serious value either.
Jayden Reed ($5.7K DraftKings, $6.9K Fanduel)
While Reed could hit a big play, his usage and production have dipped with the offense going to more of a run-heavy style with Josh Jacobs. Jordan Love has also been way more turnover-prone recently and has cut back on passing attempts when it’s not needed. With fewer chances, it makes the targets more valuable and it’s still a spread-out offense. I would take the chance on Christian Watson or Wicks or even a cheap Bo Melton as the deep threat over Reed if Doubs misses this week.
Total Apex Lock of the Game
De’Von Achane ($7.7K DraftKings, $9.5K Fanduel)
This is another smash spot for De’Von Achane, as he will be a popular pick, but it will be well worth it with the volume he is getting for the Miami offense. He has been an easy button for Tua on check-downs and has been more of a receiver while getting there on the ground not on yards but on the amount of carries and touchdowns. Achane could always get there with a few big runs and has taken over as the running back 1 over Mostert, who has been relegated as a backup mostly.
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Josh Jacobs ($7K DraftKings, $7.8K Fanduel)
Although Jacobs is coming off a huge performance, a 26-carry game and then playing on a short week is potentially concerning. While he has massive touchdown equity in this offense and coming off a 3-touchdown and 106 rushing-yard game, I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a letdown spot depending on how the game flow plays out early. While his toughness helps in this environment, Jacobs will have to get his own early or it might be a rough game for him.
Jacob’s price on Fanduel is better value but he will need a few big runs since he doesn’t catch as many passes for Green Bay. He had an injury scare late against the game last week against the 49ers but it was just cramps. If the Dolphins take a lead of some sort lead, the Packers will be forced to throw against a Miami defense that is better against the run than the pass.
Conclusion
This might be the rare case where I prefer Tua over Love, even with Miami’s history in cold conditions. If the Dolphins’s defense stops Jacobs, then Love could be forced to throw more and take more chances. Tua coming off of his concussion has been better but has a tough task against the Packer defense. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are also in interesting spots, as Waddle is coming off a season-high 8 catches for 144 yards and a touchdown. Hill hasn’t really been involved like his normal self besides week 1, but he always has play-making potential to go off for fantasy football.
