The Bucks (40 – 34, 6th in the east) host the Suns (35 – 40, 11th in the west) on Tuesday to square off in a dinner-time battle of hoops for our DFS Showdown Slate. Kevin Durant (ankle), Damian Lillard (calf), Jerico Sims (thumb), and Bobby Portis (suspension) are out, while Bradley Beal (hamstring) and AJ Green (AC joint) carry a questionable tag. The O/U is an ordinary 225.5, with the home team at -7. Let’s see what the injuries to KD and Lillard do for both teams and how we can attack that to cash our Showdown Lineups.
Bucks vs. Suns DFS Showdown Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players that we are leaning on heavily in this game.
Devin Booker (DK: $17,700. FD: $15,500)
Booker gets a massive usage bump with no KD. His points in this scenario over the last three games are 37.75, 74, and 23 on DK (34.90, 69.7, and 19.90 on FD). Yes, this looks pedestrian. The reason for the two-floor games is blowouts against OKC and DEN, where he played little to none in the 4th quarter. This game should be closer, allowing him to rack up points against a MIL defense that’s given up 129.3 points per game over the last three.
Kevin Porter Jr. (DK: $9,900. FD: $11,500)
This kid should be older than 24, considering how many teams he’s played for during his career. While he struggles in some categories in real life, he makes up for them in fantasy. A triple-double is possible for Porter Jr., or he could drop 28 points in 23 minutes. But he could play 14 minutes and destroy your lineup. That’s the type of player I want. Shoot for the moon so we can take down a GPP because this will drive people away from him.
Bucks vs. Suns DFS Showdown Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side of things, here are a few of the players we are sitting in this one.
Gary Trent Jr. (DK: $9,900. FD: $9,000)
Trent Jr. lives and dies by the three. He averages 16.1 points without Lillard on the court. The issue is that he rarely accumulates other counting stats and severely limits his upside unless he is on fire outside the arc. Over the last three games, he’s scored 22.5, 17.3, and 13.8 DK points (12.6, 15.2, and 19.8 on FD). These consistent floor performance makes him a fade.
Collin Gillespie/Ryan Dunn (DK: $8,700/$8,100. FD: $7,500/$8,500)
The confidence in this sit-em pick is based on Beal’s injury status. If Beal is in, fade these players entirely. But with Beal out, neither has proven they have the upside potential anyway. Neither has scored 13 points on FD or DK without KD and Beal on the court. Players with limited upside kill our ability to move up the leaderboard in GPPs.
Total Apex DFS Showdown Lock of the Game
Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK: $21,000. FD: $18,000)
Historically speaking, Giannis has been cold over the last few games. He only has 154 DK points over the last three. He is a lock due to his upside and lack of pay-up options (outside of Booker) for this Showdown slate. Smash him in your lineup and watch him get back on track against a 26th rank Suns defense.
Total Apex DFS Showdown Fade of the Game
Collin Gillespie/Ryan Dunn (DK: $8,700/$8,100. FD: $7,500/$8,500
These players averaged 24 DK points combined over the last three games with no KD. Let the field make the mistake of adding them to their lineups. This trend proves that their upside is too limited.
Conclusion
Our model predicts that this game to score around 239 points based on each team’s last three games. Use Giannis, Booker, and Porter Jr. to inject upside into your Showdown lineup. Avoid Trent Jr., Gillespie, and Dunn to find cheaper, less-owned options that will improve your lineup. Let’s see this game shoot out and watch our high-upside players catapult us up the leaderboard.
