NBA DFS has a small slate tonight. Draft Kings and Fanduel are in rare harmony. Each site offers a four-game slate that locks at 7:00 Eastern. Game environments look decent, with spreads of 1, 2, 8.5, and 16.5 points. Hopefully, the Timberwolves do not demolish the 76ers, and the late-night hammer Clippers vs. Mavericks stays close. Let’s dive into Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em.
DFS Start ‘Em
Zach Edey (DK: $4,700, FD: $5,400)
Edey comes with lofty ownership estimated between 45 – 55% and a projection between 26 – 29 points. Scoring 1.1 fantasy points per minute requires him to be on the court for 26+ minutes. He should start next to JJJ, with no Brandon Clarke making that number obtainable.
Lonnie Walker (DK $4,800, FD $4,800)
Our leverage play of the day, Walker, is a prized receipt of the 76ers’ struggle to put a roster on the court each night. His ownership is projected between 5% and 15%, with a projected point total of 24 – 30. At .94 points per minute, he needs around 25 minutes. That will be easy to come by if he is not hurt. The 76ers have eight of their essential players out, so Walker should get plenty of run.
Isiah Stewart (DK: $3,300, $4,200)
Beef Stew is our value play of the day. $300 off the stone minimum sets his fantasy score goal at 20 points. He is coming off a suspension for fighting, so he needs to keep a level head to hit a ceiling outcome. Without Andre Drummond playing, he will serve as the back center. His .96 fantasy points per minute mean he needs between 18 and 22 minutes.
DFS Sit ‘Em
Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK: $12,4500, FD: $12,500)
There is nothing scarier than fading Giannis. Nothing. The metrics back this decision as the Heat play solid defense and keep the game pace slow. The pedestrian 213 over/under warns that the upside may be hard to come by. Combine these factors with the salary pay-up, and it makes sense to be lower on him than consensus.
Anthony Edwards (DK: $9,500, FD: $9,300)
Ant is projected to play 30 – 34 minutes. His fantasy points-per-minute are 1.32, so hitting 6x value would require 40+ minutes. The T-Wolves are healthy, so they can spread the minutes amongst the team to keep players healthy. This game is not a ceiling environment for the young stud.
Spencer Dinwiddie (DK: $6,400, FD: $6,700)
The return of AD nosedived Dinwiddie’s usage. He has not had a usage rate over 19% since the superstar big man rejoined the team.
Total Apex Stud of the Day/Week
Anthony Davis (DK: $9,400, FD: $10,600)
AD is on a mission. He’s taking on more usage and playing with a chip on his shoulder. This price is too cheap not to take shots on him hitting 50+. The match-up is not ideal, as the Clippers can control the paint, but he is a risk worth taking on this smaller, four-game slate.
Total Apex Dud of the Day/Week
Bogdan Bogdanovich (DK: $3,900, FD: $4,600)
Bogdan’s consistency is hard to trust. Coming off a game with 30 DK points, he is a tempting roster addition at his price. The main reason for this scoring is the 3-ball, but he is eight for his last 11, well above the season average. His ownership is way too high, coming in at around 30%+. Do not take the fool’s gold while the field injects a mediocre to low-scoring piece.
Conclusion
Let’s tweak our lineups to create unique data sets that can separate from the field. Make AD a priority while owning more Edey, Walker, and Stewart. Fade Bogdan and set your exposure cap on Giannis, Edwards, and Dinwiddie. These adjustments create value-driven lineups where you can smash higher-priced studs that will be less owned. Make sure to post to X if you take down a dfs tournament (x.com/TotalApexMedia).
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