The Western Conference’s 4th/5th seeded matchup should be a tightly contested series, with the Denver Nuggets hosting the Los Angeles Clippers in Game One on Saturday. Each team brings multiple stars with ample playoff experience. Nikola Jokic’s versatility is elite, but the Clippers’ switchable defense and shot creation by Kawhi Leonard and James Harden encourage viewers to get their popcorn ready. The teams split the four regular-season games. In an odd statistic, all four wins went to the visiting team. The main difference was the score differential. The Clippers won their two by a combined nine points while the Nuggets did so by a combined 45. Let’s look at the NBA Series Best Bets. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers NBA Series Best Bets
Series Pick: Nuggets (- 110)
The Mile High City gives fans three things: 300 days of sunshine a year, a 50.6% field goal percentage, and an average of 31 assists per game. The team knows quality shots and how to be unselfish (with or without a head coach). Viewers can attribute those stats to the Serbian big man Jokic, but the team follows his lead. The Clippers’ third-ranked 110.3 defensive rating is impressive, but they are not used to a player averaging 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists like Jokic. The Clippers’ hands will be full.
Over 5.5 Games (-200)
The -200 gives bettors little to get excited about but is pivotal in how we bet this series. There is no reason to think one team will dominate because each team is batting .500 in head-to-heads on the season, all wins came on the road, and each team is healthy (minus non-rotation, bit players). Both teams are in the top 10 in offensive efficiency with different styles. The Denver Nuggets will focus on interior dominance and ball movement. The Clippers will look for isolation-heavy opportunities and perimeter shooting. Both teams are known for extending playoff series, too. The Los Angeles Clippers last four playoff series went to six-plus games, while the Denver Nuggets are no stranger to a seven-game series.
Series Rebound Leader: Nikola Jokic (-145)
Joker’s 12.7 rebounds per game on the year is not too shabby as he finished third in the NBA with 892 total rebounds and brings extra Windex to clean the glass against the Clippers. The former MVP’s rebounds boosted to 16+ on average against Los Angeles this season. He has three 20+ rebound games as well. His primary opponent in this endeavor is Ivica Zubac. A 9.2 RPG is fine, but the Clippers may reduce his minutes when they go to a small-ball lineup while Jokic stretches the floor. Against the Nuggets this season, his rebound average dropped to 6.3. This bet is heavily juiced but should be closer to -175 based on 24-25 data. Add it to the card.
Series Assists Leader: James Harden (-110)
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This bet sits at -110 because Jokic or Harden could win this category. The main reason to bet on Harden is his centralized offensive role in bringing the ball up. The ball starts in his hands more, creating more assist opportunities. LA will use the pick-and-roll and/or pass the ball to perimeter shooters to attack Denver. Harden’s season average is 10.4 and averages 9.7 against the Nuggets. Look for Jokic to be more involved in the scoring and rebound department, opening up leading dime opportunities to Harden.
Break up your series bankroll in different amounts. I’ll be going 25% Nuggets (-110), 30% Over 5.5 Games (-200), 20% Jokic Rebound Leader (-145) and 25% Harden Assist Leader. This strategy has a low-end return of $173.25 if all win but is also risk averse for $100. It’s a safe way to get skin in this series. Good luck.
